Monday, July 31, 2006

 

The Waiting is the Hardest Part

Less than 3 hours to go before the deadline and still nothing happening. To say that I'm antsy is an understatment. Of course, the rumors are flying fast and furious, with Florida and Oakland being suprising new entrants in the race for Soriano. I still think the Angels will be the winners at the end of the day.

I've been busy this morning and haven't had a chance to write, but my fellow Nats bloggers have picked up my slack. Chief among them at Chris, a.k.a. the Energizer Bunny, over at Capitol Punishment, who reports on a report from MLB Radio that Bowden turned down an offer of Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar, and Dallas McPherson for Soriano. I would have pounced on that, but JimBo appears determined to wait until the last possible minute to make a deal. The Lopez/Kearns deal has given me a lot of faith in JimBo, so I'm willing to trust his judgment as the minutes tick by. Still, that offer was a very VERY good one. A bird in hand...

I opened this morning's Washington Post to the disappointing news that JimBo considers the Marlins' offering three B-level pitching prospects - Yusmeiro Petit, Renyel Pinto, and Jason Vargas - for Soriano, to be a fall-back option. Conventional thinking is that Florida would then spin Sori somewhere else (Boston? Detroit?) for position players. Honestly, the Anaheim offer blows this one out of the water.

The A's rumor scares me. Billy Beane ALWAYS seems to get the better end of a deal. JimBo is certainly in his element playing the mad trading genius, but Billy Beane has left a trail of silly-looking GMs in his wake over the years. Tread carefully, Jim.

The rumors keep coming in faster than I can keep up with them. Updates to come...

UPDATE - 2:00 pm: ESPN's Buster Olney was on ESPN radio saying that "Bowden has offers he likes on the table." T-minus two hours and counting. Does anyone have any fingernails left for me to chew on?

UPDATE - 2:17 pm: ESPN's Jayson Stark reports the following on the ESPN chat:
The A's have been told they don't have the bullets to land Soriano. Marlins-Tigers-Washington 3-way looks like it's on life support. Another team was told by Bowden he has two deals he can do right now on Soriano _ one with an NL team (Astros?), one with an AL team (Twins?). And on Tejada, I was told there's only a 5 percent chance of that deal going down now.
Approaching the 90-minute threshhold now. The Astros are probably the NL team, but I think that the AL team is likely still the Angels. Developing...

UPDATE - 2:54 pm: More ESPN Chat info from Jayson Stark:
MLB TRADE UPDATE FROM JAYSON STARK
According to a team that called on Lidge immediately after hearing the report the Astros had been ordered to trade him, the Astros are telling other clubs that's not ture (And I gather there have been a LOT of other clubs calling since they heard that.) They would listen in a monster deal for a middle-of-the-order bat, but that's not what they're being offered anywhere. So I think it's safe to conclude now he's not getting dealt.
Not being offered a monster middle-of-the-order bat? Does that mean the Astros are out of the running? If so, who is the mystery NL team that Stark talked about earlier? Marlins? Somebody new? Closing in on one hour to go. Crunch time...

UPDATE - 3:04 pm: Just noticed this update from Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus, which could explain the lack of Soriano news:
A window was requested for a team to negotiate a long-term deal with Alfonso Soriano. The window was requested late yesterday, explaining some of the eerie quietness of the market. The team remains unknown, though my source indicates that this is not the only deal working. The Angels, Marlins, and at least one other team remain active in their pursuit of Soriano.
Less than an hour to go. Home stretch here, folks. I've seen suggestions that just because something doesn't break in the news by 4:00 pm EST doesn't mean there's no deal. The paperwork just has to be filed with the Commissioner's office by then, not necessarily announced to the media. Looks like this long afternoon could be even longer.

UPDATE - 4:01 pm: The deadline comes and goes with no news of a Soriano trade. Frustrating? Certainly. That said, I'm preaching patience. Any trade involving more than $1 million changing hands requires league approval, so it's very possible that a trade has gone down and just not announced. Late-breaking news via Will Carroll have the Twins talking Matt Garza and Scott Baker for Soriano, for example. Needless to say, that would be sweeeeeeet.

UPDATE - 4:30 pm: OK, I'm officially worried. You'd think that in an age of cell phones and instant communication, somebody somewhere would have gotten the word out if Soriano had been traded. Not to mention that there has been absolutely zippy news today about any of the other pieces that Nats had out there (Livan, Ortiz, Armas) being dealt. If JimBo failed to turn ANY of these guys in to prospects, that is simply unacceptable. I'd have to take back all the nice things I've said about you lately JimBo.

UPDATE - 4:41 pm: Multiple sources confirming word from ESPN News that JimBo will not be trading Soriano and will instead try to sign him long-term. My anger at this development knows no bounds. Expect a venom-laden rant to come as soon as I finish banging my head against the wall.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 12:16 PM 2 comments

Sunday, July 30, 2006

 

It's Quiet... Too Quiet...

Not much to report on the Soriano front as we wind our way into the last night before the trading deadline. The biggest news comes from Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll who reports that Bowden and Soriano's agent, Diego Benz, have exchanged figures in an effort to explore the option of resigning Soriano. Writes Carroll:
It's been very quiet on the Alfonso Soriano front today, in large part because the Nationals are trying to sign him, exchanging offers with agent Diego Benz. Jim Bowden hasn't heard an offer he likes, from Soriano's agent or from one of Soriano's several suitors. The Nats figure to take this one down to the deadline in hopes that desperation will increase offers. The Angels placed Bartolo Colon on the DL with elbow problems, making it tougher for them to deal Ervin Santana, one of the big names in their offer for Soriano.
This is interesting considering the noises that the club was making yesterday about trying to resign him.

Honestly, I would put the odds of the Nationals signing Soriano before the deadline are slim to none. The only reason this information would be out there, in my opinion, is as a smokescreen to try and bluff potential buyers into raising the price they're willing to pay. Note that none of the stories mention any specifics about these alleged contract negotiations. I would consider Ervin Santana to be off the table.

BTW, check out Chris's latest over at Capitol Punishment. Great article on why Soriano must be traded. If you are so inclined, check out the comments section where you can enjoy reading Chris and I go round and round on the merits of Erick Aybar.

Looks like it's going to be a long night tonight. I doubt that we'll hear anything before tomorrow morning, but I'll be up doing other work so if anything happens, I'll try and get something posted pronto.

UPDATE 12:05 AM: Last update of the night for me here, folks. The latest news is that the Sori Sweepstakes contestants are down to two teams -- Angels and Astros. The Angels continue to peddle SS Erick Aybar and prospects while the Astros are supposedly offering everything but the kitchen sink (Tavares, Ensberg, Lidge, Everett, etc.). Interestingly, Roy Oswalt's name has been bandied about as well. My gut tells me that his name was only mentioned to wake up a few sleepy GMs. Oswalt is one of the top 4 or 5 SPs in the bigs and I can't see Houston sending him away unless we have something in addition to Soriano to alleviate the loss. Oh well, here's hoping that I wake up to a big pot of prospects tomorrow morning... zzzzzzzzzz

# posted by JammingEcono @ 8:45 PM 0 comments
 

JimBo Lowering His Sights?

The latest story from SI.com's Jon Heyman has me thinking that Jim Bowden could be starting to become a bit more flexible as we enter the last 24 hours before the 4 p.m. trading deadline tomorrow. Writes Heyman:

The Angels have turned their attention to star outfielder Alfonso Soriano of the Nationals but are unwilling to offer a player like Santana for Soriano, who amounts to a nine-week rental. The Angels still could have several superb young players who could entice Washington, which especially seeks pitching.

Prospects such as pitchers Joe Saunders, Chris Bootcheck and Nick Adenhart and first baseman Kendry Morales could interest Washington

Sickels ranks Morales as the Halos' 3rd best prospect and Baseball America has him as the Angels' 7th best farm hand. He apparently needs work in the field to be anything more than a DH and Nick Johnson certainly blocks him. Still, the Nats should be thinking talent first and position second. Morales is a prime talent and could contribute off the bench immediately while he learns to play the outfield or be dealt later for more lower-level prospects. In 20 starts this year at AAA Salt Lake, Fairfax's own Joe Saunders has put up an impressive 97/38 K/BB ratio in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. BA ranked him as the Angels' 9th best prospect going into the season. He would be a perfect candidate to get a cup of coffee at RFK this season as a #5 starter. Bootcheck has scuffled a bit during his 5+ years in the minors and looks like a fringe reliever at best. 19 year-old Nick Adenhart has looked oustanding as he returns from Tommy John surgery; dominating at Class A (1.95 ERA, 9.64 K/9 in 16 starts) and performing decently enough (4.07 ERA, 26/11 K/BB) at high-A Rancho Cucamonga.

What is intriguing about this report is that all along, Bowden has been saying that 2B Howie Kendrick and/or SS Brandon Wood would have to be included to make something happen. If Heyman's mention of those four prospects is a smoke signal from Bowden that his demands may be softening, then I think we could be getting close to something. Will Carroll's latest rumor has Angels owner Arte Moreno getting involved in trade negotiations, which could signal that something is afoot.

The Angels have one of the majors' best farm systems. Saunders and Morales would immediately become our #1 and #2 prospects and Adenhart and Bootcheck would inject some much-needed new blood into the Nats' pitching-starved farm. If the Angels were to offer those four prospects for Soriano, I would tell Bowden to pull the trigger.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 4:17 PM 2 comments
 

Another Domino Falls

ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that the Phillies have reached an agreement to trade Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to the Yankees for unnamed prospects, but not Philip Hughes or Jose Tabata.

And another domino falls...

This news comes on the heels of Ken Rosenthal's stunning news that the White Sox have pulled their offer for Soriano and the Tigers are out of the running as well. Rosenthal also reports that the Angels are again hot on the trail of Soriano, with the Twins also in the hunt and the Astros, Mariners, and Dodgers fading.

Abreu's trade leaves only the wishy-washy Miguel Tejada as a tradeable commodity whose worth is on par with Soriano. Jeff Zrebiez at the Baltimore Sun reports that the Angels offered 23-year old RHP Ervin Santana and 22-year old SS Erick Aybar for Tejada but were stunningly turned down. Zrebiez suggests that including 23-year old 1B prospect Casey Kotchman in the above deal would get it done for Baltimore. The Angels still consider SS Brandon Wood and 2B Howie Kendrick untouchable, Zrebriez notes. (Hat tip to Tim at MLBTradeRumors.com for this tip.)

Why the pitching-starved Orioles would not take the Santana/Aybar offer is beyond me. If those two prospect were to be still on the table tomorrow morning in a Soriano deal, I would be hard-pressed to say no to it. If Kotchman, 3B Dallas MacPherson, or 20 year old RHP Nick Adenhart were to also be included in an offer for Soriano today, I might just be forced to catch the next flight to L.A. and throttle JimBo until he says "yes" to that deal. I'd even throw in Tony Armas or Ramon Ortiz to compensate for Santana, just to get it done. Heck, include Livan to clear some salary. Just do it!

Tejada's reluctance to accept a trade and/or position change increases Soriano's value slightly, so I might be inclined to wait 8-10 more hours to see if anything better pops up from the Astros or Twins. According to Will Carroll, though, the Astros are out of the sweepstakes so it could come down to the Twins vs. the Angels. With that said, we are getting down to the wire. It takes time for paperwork, etc. to get done so I think that sometime around 12:00-1:00pm EST tomorrow will be the cut-off point for any trade to happen.

Again, if Santana and Aybar are on the table tomorrow morning, I'd say go for it. Anything extra at that point would be gravy.

I'll be online all night, so if I hear of anything happening, look for an update.

Update (4:32 PM): Ken Rosenthal has updated his story on the deal and is reporting that the Yankees will be sending SS C.J. Henry (Yanks' 2005 #1 pick), 27 year-old LHP Matt Smith, 18 year-old C Jesus Sanchez, and 20 year-old RHP Carlos Monasterios. All the prospects, except for Smith, are a A-level or below. Henry, the 4th ranked prospect in the Yankees system by Baseball America, is obviously the centerpiece of the deal (Sickels has more on him here). That said, what talent there is in the Yanks' system is at the A-level or below, so in 3-4 years Phils fans could be looking back on this deal as a nice haul for the Phillies. From the Nats' point of view if this is the best that the Yankees could offer, I'm glad JimBo walked. The Phillies got some talent, but in a depleted Yankees system, Philip Hughes or Jose Tabata would have been the only targets worth giving Soriano up for.


# posted by JammingEcono @ 1:26 PM 0 comments

Friday, July 28, 2006

 

Come to Butthead...

So the second Nats trade of the '06 dealing season just went down. According to the official release, the Nats have dealt 39 year old reliever Mike Stanton to the Giants for 19 year-old single-A RHP Shairon Martis. John Sickels, who gave Martis a "B-" grade ranks Martis as the Giants 11th-best prospect, had this encouraging evaluation of the young hurler:
4.08 ERA in 10 starts for Augusta, 44/11 K/BB in 46 innings, 52 hits allowed. Showing good command, has given up just one homer, but too hittable right now. Remains projectable and promising.
The official release noted some additional encouraging news about young Shairon:

Martis was 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA (31 ER/76.2 IP) in 15 starts for Augusta of the Single-A South Atlantic League at the time of the trade. Martis allowed two runs or less in five of his final seven starts with Augusta, including a trio of start in which he worked at least 5.0 innings and did not allow a run.

Rated among the Giants' top 30 prospects according to Baseball America, Martis has averaged 8.9 strikeouts per 9.0 innings during his nearly three-year professional career, during which he is 12-8 with a 2.59 ERA (52 ER/181.0 IP) in 40 career games (32 starts). A native of Curacao, Martis posted sub-2.00 ERAs in both 2004 and 2005.

Stanton, 39, went 3-5 with a 4.47 ERA in 56 appearances for Washington in 2006.
Getting a promising young starter for a 39-year old leftie specialist is great news. If you count the deal last September that sent Stanton to Boston in exchange for Rhys Taylor and Yader Peralta, Mike Stanton has now been traded for three prospects. Who says Jim Bowden doesn't know how to stock a farm system? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see JimBo re-sign Stanton AGAIN this offseason and pull the same trick in '07. What Bowden has done now twice with Stanton is to practically get something for nothing. For all the manure that's been piled at him feet by me and others in Nats Nation, the last 10 days have been very good for this team's long-term future. Here's hoping that the next 3 days prove just as fruitful ... You hear that Minnesota and Houston??

# posted by JammingEcono @ 5:50 PM 2 comments
 

Sori's Stock Up: Rangers Get Carlos Lee

Breaking News: ESPN is reporting that the Brewers have agreed to deal OF Carlos Lee, outfield prospect Nelson Cruz, and a player to be named later to the Texas Rangers for reliever Francisco Cordero, and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix,.

The deal is a very good news for the Nationals since it means that the biggest impediment to driving up Soriano's value just got taken off the market. Could this be the first domino to fall? Texas is in Anaheim's division, after all. Would this make a Howie Kendrick-type Halos prospect less untouchable? Only time will tell.

More instant reaction here.

As always, updates to come should events warrant.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 10:57 AM 0 comments

Thursday, July 27, 2006

 

Soriano Fatigue Setting In

As you may have noticed, I've been spending the better part of the past 2 weeks delving into the excruciating minutiae of all the Alfonso Soriano trade rumors. It's by far the biggest story involving the Nationals at the moment (despite a five six-game win streak), but I'm starting to tire a bit of going over every rumor with a fine toothed comb. With four days to go until the deadline, it's looking like a foregone conclusion that this is going to come down to the final 48 hours. As such, the trade rumors for Soriano have settled in to a rut. JimBo wants 1-2 #1 prospects for Soriano. Nobody wants to give it to him. Blah blah blah. Not much has changed overall since I last discussed the various Soriano suitors. Greg over at SportsBlah.com has summed up the general situation, nicely:
There is no doubt in anyone's mind that Alfonso Soriano will maybe get definitely traded to the White Sox, possibly. It's just a matter of time. You'll see. He's certainly probably going there. And all it will take is Brandon McCarthy or Scott Podsednik or Javier Vazquez or Freddie Garcia or Lance Broadway or Brian Anderson or Ryan Sweeney or Josh Fields or some other guys. Guaranteed. It's obvious that the possibility of this might be 100% in the bag. It's true. This might definitely happen. How do I know? Because ESPN keeps telling me. Every 30 minutes.
Carlos Lee is likely to hit the market, in my opinion, and that could certainly help to bring down the price. Ken Rosenthal has the latest, with Brewers GM Doug Melvin sounding open to offers for Lee. Having Lee out there only furthers the notion that the Sori sweepstakes will come down to the final few days, perhaps even the final few hours.

The most significant news on the Sori trade front again comes via rumor-miller extraordinaire Ken Rosenthal:
The defending National League champion Astros plan a major push to add an impact hitter before Monday's non-waiver deadline. How major? The club intends to be "super-aggressive," one major-league official says, pursuing trades for big names such as Nationals left fielder Alfonso Soriano and Brewers left fielder Carlos Lee and making virtually everyone on their roster available.
The Astros are certainly no strangers to deadline dealing, having swung a mega-deal for Carlos Beltran into a World Series appearance in 2004. Houston is a manageable 5 games out of the NL wild card. With Clemens and Pettitte unlikely to return in 2007 and having already traded for Aubrey Huff, this news immediately bumps them up into the race for Soriano. They managed to nab Huff without giving up any top prospects, but I doubt they'd be able to get away with that if they are serious about Sori. Top prospect RHP Jason Hirsh is being looked at to help replace Clemens and Pettitte and is allegedly untouchable. OF Hunter Pence would be the next best target. RHP Matt Albers and RHP Juan Gutierrez could make for solid add-ons to a deal.

With all this in mind, I'd like to step back from Soriano 24/7 and take a look at some of the other Nats trade news...

Livan in the Spotlight

In a very weak market for starting pitching, Livan Hernandez's name has been appearing with regularity. While he won't net nearly the return that Soriano will, I expect him to get us at least one 2nd tier prospect. The Post's story today astutely points out that Livan has had quality starts in four of his last five turns. Tonight's start against the Giants will be crucial for many teams in deciding whether to make a run at the (allegedly) 31-year old Cuban. If he can turn in another decent start and continue to run his fastball into the 88-89 mph range like he did on Saturday against the Cubs, I could see the Mets taking a long hard look at him. Given the $7M due Livan next season, if Minaya were to offer OF Victor Diaz, LHP Jon Niese, or OF Carlos Gomez, I'd take it in a second. Mark Hale at the New York Post does his best to add fuel to this rumor, signaling that Pedro Martinez's Friday start (his first since returning from the DL) could determine just how hard the Mets push for pitching at the deadline.

UPDATE 4:41 PM - Today's win gave Livo his 3rd straight (and 5th in his last 6) quality start. Anyone care to place a bet on how long it took JimBo to hit Omar Minaya on the speed-dial once Micah Bowie relieved Livan? 2.3 seconds is my guess. "Hey there, Omar. Didya see Livo's last start, 'ol buddy 'ol pal? Now about that Phil Humber for Livan deal we were discussing..."

Armas Also Drawing Interest

Mark Hale's article also mentions that the Mets are looking at Tony Armas. The 28 year-old Venezuelan may have salvaged his trade value with his 7 IP, 3-hit gem against the Cubbies on Sunday. Prior to a tough 3-game stretch against the Rockies, Red Sox, and Marlins, Armas was cruising along with an outstanding 3.48 ERA. While his lengthy medical file has certainly held him back in previous years, he is putting is all together in 2006. An astute GM could do much worse that picking up the remainder of Armas's $2.1M 2006 salary for the stretch run. Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi could be just such a GM, according to the Toronto-based Globe and Mail:
In addition to Lidle, the Blue Jays have also expressed an interest in Rodrigo Lopez of the Orioles and Tony Armas, Jr., of the Washington Nationals, although they are scared by Armas's history of arm trouble. Sources say the club is leery of running out rookie Casey Janssen for too many more starts.
I'm not too knowledgeable about the Blue Jays farm system, so you'll have to excuse me if I rely on MiLB.com's Kevin Czerwinski's analysis and Baseball America's synopsis. RHP Josh Banks, RHP Brandon League, or LHP David Purcey are all intriguing names that would help address the Nats' lack of young arms on the farm.

Meanwhile...

While I've been amusing myself with following all the trade rumors, the rest of the Natmosphere has been busy, you know, actually paying attention to the game on the field. Silly bloggers...

First off, everyone's favorite Ute, Farid, is a machine. Why this guy doesn't have a paid gig writing up games is beyond me. Check out his excellent recap of last night's Giant killing here. BTW, great job fixing the coding on the site for us Firefox users, Farid. Looks great!

Chris over a Capitol Punishment continues to enlighten us all with the latest news and witty commentary. Needhamism of the day right here:
If the Brewers do decide to put Carlos Lee on the market, the price for Soriano goes down. Why pay $50 for a bottle of Evian if you can get the tap water for free?
Why indeed...

I couldn't have put why Sori needs to be traded any better myself than Scott did recently over at NFA. Check it out.

Basil does his best to explain the train wreck that is Jose Guillen, circa 2006. Try not to puke when you see the kind of season Juan Rivera is having in Anaheim this year.

Finally, OMG discusses my dream 2006 offseason scenario -- Soriano, Livan, and Vidro all traded, farm is stocked, and the Nats have almost $25M to play with in the offseason. Dream a little dreeeeam...

That's all for today folks. As always, updates will come if the fecal matter impacts the rotational air circulation unit.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 9:31 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

 

Who's Going to Blink?

The clock continues to tick down toward the trade deadline and each day increases the pressure on GM Jim Bowden to lower the price for a deal for Alfonso Soriano. Unfortunately, I’m starting to worry that he may be overplaying his hand. Numerous reports have stated that JimBo is asking for organizations’ #1 prospects right off the bat. Understandably, most rival GM’s are hesitant to deal the potential future of their franchise for a bat, however good, that could be only a two-month rental. Rampant news reports, both informed and not, have given GM’s a good idea of who Bowden wants from each team. As any seasoned negotiator will tell you, it’s usually not a good idea to let too much information get out into the public domain since it may reduce your leverage. On the other hand, this could all be part of JimBo's strategy to drive up the cost for Soriano.

There is still a lot of time for things to happen, but I’m starting to think that if Bowden was going to get a #1 prospect, it would have happened already. A more optimistic (perhaps naïve) evaluation of the situation would be that multiple organizations have agreed to deal a premium prospect and the hold-up for the trade is in deciding what, if any, additional farm talent will be included in the deal. Another factor that has held up a deal is the somewhat unsettled situation with Bobby Abreu and, for the few days he was on the market, Shea Hillenbrand.

So, six days out from the trade deadline, I’ll offer my latest predictions, in order of likelihood on where Soriano may end up by July 31:
These are just the Soriano rumors. It is entirely likely that Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, or Tony Armas (the Nats’ three most tradeable piece now that Guillen is done for the year) could be dealt before Soriano exits our fair District. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers are three teams I can think of off the top of my head that could use a fifth starter for the stretch run and the playoffs.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 12:00 PM 1 comments

Monday, July 24, 2006

 

Sori Deal Close for ChiSox's McCarthy and ... ???

I had a long post all written and set to go about the current state of the Soriano trade rumors, but then I saw this little bombshell from ESPN:
The White Sox are "extremely close" to trading for Nationals outfielder Alfonso Soriano, a source close to the situation told ESPN The Magazine's Tim Kurkjian. The Nationals have great interest in pitcher Brandon McCarthy.
Ooooohkay.

The White Sox haven't even been blips on my radar since I mentioned them in passing more than a week ago. Over the last 24 hours, though, the Pale Hose have rocketed to the top of the list of suitors for Soriano thanks to this report from Ken Rosenthal and Tim Dierke's reporting of Kenny Williams non-denial of the Rosenthal story.

Sooooo McCarthy and who? No way that Soriano is worth McCarthy straight up. I don't even think that McCarthy could qualify as the "centerpiece" of a deal. One would expect that under-achieving, but high ceiling, OF Brian Anderson would probably be included considering Bowden's desire for a center fielder. Still, I would not consider either to be blue-chip prospects. In my hypothetical GM job, 3B Josh Fields, OF Ryan Sweeney, or RHP Lance Broadway would probably add enough value to a package including McCarthy and Anderson to get this deal happening. For more on the Chicago minor-league system, check out excellent articles from Phil Rogers, John Sickels and Jonathan Mayo.

The situation, as they say, is fluid. Expect an update should anything go down.

UPDATE - 5:12 PM EST: You can take this with several grains of salt, but a poster over at one of the ESPN forums who claims to work for the Toledo Mud Hens is flogging a hot rumor that says the Tigers are on the verge of dealing 1B Chris Shelton, OF Craig Monroe, RHP Humberto Sanchez, and an additional unnamed minor leaguer for Soriano. Driving this speculation is this report from the Detroit Free Press which claims that Sanchez was scratched from tonight's AAA Toledo game due to a "health reason."

UPDATE - 5:33 PM EST: The Washington Post's Barry Svrluga is on the John Riggins show on Triple X ESPN Radio and saying that something is definitely happening, likely with the White Sox and involving McCarthy. He wouldn't go out on a limb and predict a deal today, though, so he was basically just confirming the ESPN/AP story that's already out there.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 3:02 PM 1 comments

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

 

Transmissions from the Space Needle

The drumbeat of interest in Soriano from the Pacific Northwest has gotten louder over the past few days. St. Barry' s report on the Nats scouting of Seattle's 20-year old OF phenom Adam Jones is the clearest evidence yet that the M's either already are, or soon could be, the front runners in the Soriano trade derby. As I discussed a few days ago, Jones would be a highly desirable addition to the Nats' barren and tattered farm system.

Of course, being the nosy intrepid blogger I am, I'm never satisfied with just accepting what's out there in the media at face value. To get the inside scoop on what the Mariners cognoscenti think about the Soriano trade rumors, I turned to the gang at U.S.S. Mariner, the premiere M's blog on the Net. Dave Cameron from USSM was kind enough offer me his perspective. Let me tell you, he pulled no punches (e-mail quoted with permission):
Alfonso Soriano is highly overrated, soon to be highly overpaid, and a terrible fit for our ballpark. We have two players in Tacoma (Shin-Soo Choo and Chris Snelling) who could put up comparable numbers to Soriano starting tomorrow, and they both make the league minimum.

There's absolutely no way I'd consider any trade for Alfonso Soriano that included the Mariners giving up any kind of key piece to the team's future. I wouldn't even think about moving [Jeff] Clement or Rafael Soriano in a one for one deal, much less moving both of them together.

About the best offer you would get from me would be something along the lines of Jeremy Reed, Wladimir Balentien, and Bryan LaHair.
Dave followed this up with a similarly scathing posting on USSM:
Trading for Alfonso Soriano would be a lousy, lousy idea. Yes, he’s having a good season in Washington, but it is the National League (and while the difference is probably overstated, the AL is significantly better this year, and that has to be acounted for), and Soriano is exactly the type of hitter that Safeco is harshest on. An optimistic expected performance from Soriano for the last two months of ‘06 would be something like .280/.330/.500, and he could easily come in under that. Meanwhile, the optimistic expected performance of Chris Snelling would probably be in the .300/.360/.450 range, which is almost equal in value. Plus, Snelling is free, both in terms of salary and in terms of players needed to acquire him.

The M’s don’t need to trade for an LF/DH. They just need to use the ones already in Tacoma.

So, does this mean he doesn't like the idea of trading quality prospects for Soriano? Just wondering... *smile*

The funny thing is, I actually agree with his assessment of Soriano. With all due respect to Doug McKinney over at NatsFanatics, I think that Soriano's 2006 stat line so far reeks of a contract-year. Don't get me wrong, though. I respect Soriano's game immensely and was glad that the Nationals traded for him. That said, Soriano's career numbers suggest that he is much more mortal than he has shown through 95 games. Anyone that pays for Sori this offseason is going to have to pay for his 2006 performance, though they will likely get something closer to the .280/.324/.509 AVG/OBP/SLG with 35 HR and 95 RBI that have been his career average.

For the Nats, who are in the midst of a lost season and rightfully focusing on rebuilding their farm system, it makes no sense to invest $10-12 million per year in a left fielder who is soon to be on the wrong side of 30 and who won't bring the team within sniffing distance of a playoff berth. On the other hand, it makes a ton of sense to trade said left fielder to a contender for the prospects who will start the long process of making this team competitive in 3-4 years.

Getting back to the wheeling and dealing, kudos to Farid over at Beltway Boys for picking up on ESPN's Jayson Stark's analysis of the current Nats trade situation:
Speaking on ESPN News, Jayston Stark said that there are two groups of teams after Soriano's services. In the first group, there are six teams, all waiting for Bowden's asking price to go down, and in the second group, there is the Detroit Tigers.
This is exactly the situation that a deadline seller like the Nationals should be hoping for -- a GM of a team in contention who is willing to mortgage the future to win now. Head over to Beltway Boys to read more about his thoughts on some potential Tiger trade bait I hadn't considered before (Dmitri "Blech" Young, Craig "Double Blech" Monroe) and one I have (Humberto Sanchez). The Detroit media continues to buzz with rumors about a potential Soriano deal. I wouldn't read too much in to Jim Leyland's comments that "we're not involved in anything now." Coaches don't make deals after all; GM's do. Of much bigger signficance in that vein is the following from Danny Knobler at MLive.com:
Many people in baseball continue to believe that general manager Dave Dombrowski would like to deal for a significant hitter (possibly Washington's Alfonso Soriano), and that owner Mike Ilitch will also push for the Tigers to improve.
Teams that are in a position to make the playoffs in a city that hasn't sniffed the postseason is over a decade tend to think about the here and now moreso than the future. Let's hope that JimBo can profit from this short-sightedness.

Last but not least, the Livan-to-the-Mets rumor continues to percolate. The Newark Star-Ledger's Dan Graziano today ranks Livo as the 4th most tradeable bit of chum on the market, citing Minaya's interest in the rubber-armed Cuban. Victor Diaz and a decent prospect would make for a sweet catch if the rumors prove true. Ben Shpigel at the New York Times seems to be thinking along these same lines:

The pitcher who could make the most sense, for several reasons, is the Nationals’ Liván Hernández. Minaya, like other general managers, is fond of pursuing former players. He acquired Orlando Hernández, Liván’s half-brother, in May for the second time, and he previously traded for Liván in 2003.

And it was Minaya who signed Liván Hernández to a three-year, $21 million contract extension in 2004. The roughly $11 million he is still owed on that deal through 2007 is making him too expensive for the Nationals to keep.

Hernández would probably not command a steep price — perhaps two midlevel prospects — and he could be more motivated if he were reunited with Orlando and Minaya. He is precisely the sort of innings eater the Mets could use; Hernández led the majors last season with 246 1/3 innings.

Encouraging commentary from the Grey Lady, to say the least. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but it's all about getting prospects for the farm. The potential 2006-07 free agent pitching class has any number of serviceable innings-eaters that would be available for the '07 Nats to buy to hold us over until the kids start to develop. Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and Cory Lidle are just a few names off the top of my head that would likely be good for 190+ IP of comparable quality and command less than Livan's $7M 2007 salary.

That's all the time I have for today. Tomorrow I'll take a look at the dimming options available for a Jose Guillen trade as well as evaluating the latest Soriano and Livo rumors.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 11:38 AM 3 comments

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

 

Sori Sweepstakes Contestant Run-Down: Cardinals and Dodgers

So I had my first experience with the Galileo Grill at lunch today. Basically, they herd the unwashed rabble through the dining room to the Laboratorio section of the restaurant (imagine a kitchen with tables set aside for high-rollers) where they have attractively priced sandwiches, for DC at least. After ordering from a slightly more jovial version of the Soup Nazi, they are so anxious to get you out of there that they don't even bother to have a cashier. You just put your money into a box and make change on your own. My pork shoulder sandwich was above-average for the $5 price, but it was nothing that I would stand in line again for.

Anyway, the point on my rambling is that while I was sweating it out with the other cattle in the DC heat, I got to thinking about the latest rumors in the Soriano sweepstakes. Chris over at Capitol Punishment does a good job of running down the latest headlines, so I'm going to spend today's posting looking a little closer at two of the more intriguing dance partners I've heard bandied about, namely the St. Louis Cardinals and L.A. Dodgers.

Cardinals: Rasmus or Bust

Let's start with the Cards. The Red Birds are currently up 3.5 games in the division and are looking for a big LF bat to replace So Taguchi and give them the oomph to sew up the division by holding off Reds. They've been linked to both Bobby Abreu and Soriano (as well as former Card Reggie Sanders), so it looks like they are keeping their options open at the moment.

That said, what, if anything, do the Cardinals have to offer the Nationals? The obvious standouts are RHP Anthony Reyes and RHP Adam Wainwright, though both are significant pieces to the Cardinals plans this season, so a trade there is unlikely. I've been a fan of Wainwright since his days in the Atlanta system, so it would pain me to pass him up, especially since there is a good chance he'll make a successful transition from the bullpen to a starting gig eventually. So what's left? Any trade discussion with the Cards should start with 2005 first rounder Colby Rasmus. Here's what Jason Ratliff at MiLB.com had to say about the 19-year-old OF:

1. (28) Colby Rasmus, OF
.296-7-27, 13 SB, .362 OBP, .514 SLG

The Cardinals are anxious to see whether their top pick from last year is ready to step into a full-season league at age 19. Rasmus was certainly up to the challenge of the Appy League in his professional debut, hitting .296/.362/.514 with impressive power for his 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame. The Alabama high school product roped 16 doubles, five triples and seven home runs. He also stole 13 bases in 16 attempts, played a solid centerfield, and didn't hit into a double play in 216 at-bats. His one deficiency was a rather glaring one -- 73 strikeouts in 62 games, including nine three-strikeout games and a five-K performance that was part of eight consecutive whiffs. Rasmus was an all-or-nothing type hitter, racking up 21 multi-hit games and 20 multi-strikeout games, only once doing both in the same game. A successful sophomore season could establish him as just the fourth true top-flight outfield prospect the Cardinals have had in the past 15 years, joining Ray Lankford, Brian Jordan and J.D. Drew.

John Sickels was equally impressed with the youngster:
2) Colby Rasmus, OF, B+ - Hitting .310/.373/.512 with 22 doubles and 11 homers for Class A Quad Cities. Also has 17 steals. . .power, speed, it's all here.
I don't accept Baseball America's opinion as Gospel, but the fact that they ranked Rasmus as the Cards' #2 prospect (#1 now that Reyes is apparently in the bigs to stay) does say something about the general consensus opinion on his talent level. As I said before, unless Rasmus is included in the Soriano trade discussions, then there's no reason for JimBo to be having the discussion in the first place. The rest of the Cards' farm system is fairly weak and really not worth the trouble.

Dodgers: Beware of the Curse of Guzman

According to ESPN's Scott Law (via Tot Holmes at LADugout.com), the Dodgers are in "serious talks" with JimBo regarding Soriano. The centerpiece of the deal would be troubled AAA OF prospect Joel Guzman. Hopefully JimBo will remember the last time he overpaid for a shortstop named Guzman and ask for significantly more in return for Soriano. Guzman, who was ranked at the top of the Dodgers system this year, has failed to top a .349 OBP at any level of the Dodgers minor league system since he was signed in 2001. 'Nuff said. Sickels is equally sanguine about Guzman's future:
2) Joel Guzman, OF, Grade A- - .281/.341/.442 in 70 games for Vegas, 9 homers in 260 at-bats. Doing OK but I thought he was poised for a breakout, and I am starting to have doubts about how he is going to develop.
As I mentioned a few days ago, the Dodger organization is stocked with talent and as such, JimBo should milk it for more than a SS prospect whose development appears to have plateaued. Including Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, or Scott Elbert would go a long way towards making this deal more equitable from the Nats' point of view.

In closing...

I'll close today by taking a step back taking a look at the whole deadline dealing picture, which shows that Bowden is playing an interesting game with a week-plus left until July 31. In insisting on top prospects in trade (Howie Kendrick, Philip Hughes, etc.), he's obviously shooting for the moon. If some GM capitulates and gives him what he wants, all the better. A more realistic scenario is that as we get closer to the deadline, Bowden's demands will get more realistic. He knows as well as the rest of us that the worst-case scenario for him will be failing to deal Soriano (and Livan and Guillen, to a much lesser extent) and getting nothing in return, except perhaps some draft picks, when he walks at the end of the year. My only fear is that JimBo may me letting all the "genius" talk about him fleecing the Reds in the Kearns-Lopez deal go to his head, hold out too long for the tip-top minor league talent, and end up coming away with empty-handed at midnight on July 31.

Should that unfortunate scenario come to pass, I would not be at all surprised if it cost him a job.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 11:43 AM 0 comments

Monday, July 17, 2006

 

Are the M's a Soriano Sweepstakes Dark Horse?

I hadn't been thinking much about the Mariners' chances in the Soriano trade race until the last day or so when a spate of new info about the M's farm hands started to grace my screen. Now though, my antennae are quivering over the prospects in the Pacific Northwest. With the Mariners a reachable 4 games out of first in the AL West, the next few weeks could determine whether they are sellers or buyers at the deadline. Their schedule between now and the end of the month (at Boston, Toronto, Cleveland, and Baltimore) is not the easiest, so how they fare in the next few days could prove critical to their trading decisions.

With that said, let's look at the latest Nats-M's trade rumors. Ken Rosenthal's column, as usual, is a great place to start. I'll skip the Yankees and Angels sections of the column (short version: Howie Kendrick, Ervin Santana, and Philip Hughes are probably untouchable) and focus on the M's:
The Mariners see an opportunity. Few teams can afford to rent Nationals left fielder Alfonso Soriano, a potential free agent, for the final two months of the season. ... By obtaining Soriano, who has more than $3 million left on his contract, the Mariners could A) ensure that he doesn't go to the Angels; B) boost their offense, the fifth-worst in the American League and C) obtain a player who could prove a difference-maker in the A.L. West race, helping improve the job security of general manager Bill Bavasi. ... Unlike the Angels, the Mariners lack a deep farm system, putting them at a disadvantage as a buyer in trade discussions. The Nationals, in dire need of a center fielder, almost certainly would have interest in the Mariners' Adam Jones, whom the team promoted Friday from Class AAA. The M's just as surely would prefer to trade Jeremy Reed, who currently is on the disabled list with a fractured right thumb.
The sentiment among the cognosenti about Adam Jones seems to be similarly positive. And by "cognoscenti," I mean one of the resident fantasy baseball schlubs at Yahoo! (and before you ask, yes, I am bitter about my fantasy team's cellar-dweller position):
Adam Jones, Sea, OF (ETA: Now) - The baseball version of Pacman, Jones is a feisty, athletic outfielder very similar to former Mariner Mike Cameron, but without the .220 batting average. Equipped with a cannon arm, fleet feet and plus power, he is a future 20/20 player. ... The top hitting prospect in the Seattle system, Jones hit .277 with 13 homers, 56 RBI and 14 steals in 332 at-bats at Triple-A Tacoma.
Word is that the M's could be open to dealing ace catching prospect 2005 first-round pick Jeff Clement thanks to Japanese import Kenji Johjima blocking his progess to the bigs. Jason Ratlif at MinorLeagueBaseball.com had some further encouragement to the notion that the M's would be willing to move Clement:
Clement did show early signs that he could become the M's next big thing, but he just happens to play the one position where Seattle is already deepest in terms of Minor League talent -- catcher.
While his 70 ABs at AAA Tacoma haven't been out-of-this-world (.229/.289/.343), his line at AA San Antonio gave a lot of reason for optimism (.288/.386/.525). The Nats have been searching for a viable backup for Brian Schneider for some time. Clement could be just what the doctor ordered. Who know? A little healthy competition might even help wake up Mr. .233's bat a little bit too.

Throw in RHP Rafael Soriano or LHP Travis Blackley, and we could have a deal that makes sense for the long-term health of the Nats. And by "long-term health," I don't mean substituting much-shopped RHP Joel Pineiro for one of aforementioned young arms.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 10:11 PM 0 comments
 

Nats Targeting 3 Detroit Prospects

Hello again everyone. The trade winds, they are a'blowin', ain't they? I could go into all of them, but I'll try to stick the the ones that actually name names. In that spirit, I'll use today's blogspace to discuss a hot rumor that my buddy Ulrath just sent me, courtesy of the Detroit Free Press:
The Nationals want three prospects, and have asked that prized right-hander Humberto Sanchez be included in the deal. Sanchez (5-2, 3.19 ERA at Triple-A Toledo) has pitched superbly since his promotion from Double-A Erie. He started and pitched one perfect inning in the All-Star Futures Game, and has an overall potential that compares favorably to that of rookies Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya.

Washington officials are requesting a package that includes Sanchez, rising prospect Jair Jurrjens (3-2, 2.78 at Double-A Erie) and a position player, likely outfielder Brent Clevlen, a former second-round pick.

Soriano is hitting .283 with 29 home runs — 10 more than the Tigers’ leader, Marcus Thames — and has 23 stolen bases. Still, the Tigers’ interest in meeting the Nationals’ demands remains unclear. Other teams in pursuit of Soriano include the Angels, Mariners, and Yankees.
Here's what John Sickels had to say about the three in a recent posting on his great MinorLeagueBall.com blog:
4) Brent Clevlen, OF, B
Hitting .219/.304/.324 with a 36/102 BB/K in 306 at-bats. Inability to make contact against advanced pitching is a bad sign.

13) Jair Jurrjens, RHP, C+
Combined 8-0, 2.16 in 16 starts between Lakeland and Erie, 76/17 K/BB in 96 innings. Throws strikes, has adjusted well to Double-A so far, a sleeper.

18) Humberto Sanchez, RHP, C
10-4, 1.89 in 17 starts combined between Erie and Toledo, 117/37 K/BB in 109 innings, just 79 hits. Better health and more consistent command resulting in excellent numbers. Throws quite hard and is breaking through this year. Raise his grade to B+.
In particular, Sickels singled out Sanchez as having made "huge progress." Young Humberto has been striking out better than a batter per inning between AA and AAA this season (9.61 K/9 over last 113 IP), so I would tend to agree.

Regarding Clevlen, while Sickels is a bit pessimistic, Kevin Czerwinski at MinorLeagueBaseball.com is more optimistic:
Brent Clevlen, OF
It would be easy to point to the fact that Clevlen's monster 2005 at Class A Advanced Lakeland was the result of spending a second year in the Florida State League. After all, his average jumped nearly 80 points, he tripled his home run output and doubled his RBI total to 102, earning league MVP honors along the way. He played with more determination and poise last year, though, showing the confidence that clearly was lacking during his first go-round in Lakeland. He had a good spring, impressed Tigers manager Jim Leyland and will look to follow up his big season at Double-A Erie. "Last year was his third year of pro ball and if you looked at it like college junior playing in that league, those were pretty impressive numbers," said David Chadd, vice president of amateur scouting. "He's a heck of a player with a bright future and would certainly be a No. 1 prospect in my book. He's just an impressive young talent."
Clevlen has certainly struggled at AA this season, posting an unacceptable .223/.303/.343 (AVG/OBP/SLG) line. For a guy 22 years young, I'd like to see a bit more progress at this point in his career, but in a deal where Sanchez would be the centerpiece, I'd be willing to be patient with him.

I don't have a whole lot to say about Jurrjens, though this strikeout is certainly impressive enough. His K/9 rate has decreased as he's advanced from Rookie League to A-ball though, which is worrisome.

Overall, this is a nice package of players, but I wouldn't get overly excited if I was JimBo. I'd like to see what the other Soriano Sweepstakes contestants have to offer before taking this deal.

Before I sign off, a big-time hat-tip to Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com for the linking today. Tim is as close to baseball rumor-mongering royalty as you're likely to get, so I'm tickled pink that he gave me a shout-out.

(BTW, does using the term "shout-out" in a blog posting irrevocably mark me as a child of the 90's? Use the comments to discuss...)

# posted by JammingEcono @ 4:19 PM 0 comments

Thursday, July 13, 2006

 

Thar she blows! First big trade...

The first big trade of the Nats 2006 season just went down, and boy did it catch me off-guard.

Direct from the horse's mouth:
The Washington Nationals today acquired outfielder Austin Kearns, shortstop Felipe Lopez and right-handed pitcher Ryan Wagner from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for right-handed pitcher Gary Majewski, left-handed pitcher Bill Bray, infielder Brendan Harris, shortstop Royce Clayton and right-handed pitcher Daryl Thompson. Nationals Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden made the announcement.
Wow.

I don't have time this afternoon to go into all the specifics, but this is a great trade on its face. Kearns and Lopez are both young, good talent. Losing Majewski and Bray definitely hurts our bullpen, but what does it matter at this point? It's not like protecting those late-inning leads is going to get us any closer to sniffing the playoffs. As the press release mentions, none of the acquired players are over the age of 26, which is exactly the sort of youth-centered approach that this team should be taking.

The onlt quibble I could possibly have with this deal is that is didn't really restock the minors, but who cares? We got younger, which is the important thing.

Chris over at Capitol Punishment is liking it as well.

Way to go JimBo. So much for the "Cincinnati won't deal with Bowden" theory...

More reaction to come when I have the time.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 3:00 PM 1 comments
 

Beware of Flying Trade Rumors

The July 31 trading deadline is one of my favorite times of the baseball season. Why? Because while I do love the regular season, it's like a long-lasting marriage. You're madly in love with your wife or husband, but every day tends to be like the one before and the one to come. Sure there are exciting moments in both marriages and the 162-game regular season (new babies, no-hitters, anniversaries, 19-inning marathons, etc.) , but the natural day-to-day cycle of both tends to fall into a routine. A much-loved routine, but a routine nonetheless. On the other hand, the trading deadline and the two weeks after the All-Star break leading up to it are like a summer romance -- short, sweet, and full of possiblity. For the Nats, this trading deadline is especially lovely since it could very well mark the beginning of the first true rebuilding process for this franchise in almost a decade.

Yesterday, I knocked off the 'ol blogging rust with a few thoughts on potential Angels, Tigers, and White Sox prospects to target. Well, it seems that I was thinking the same thing as just about every sports writer in the country. Today's papers are chock-full of trade rumors, most of which involve the Nats, and Soriano in particular. Published reports indicate that the Nats have received 6 serious inquiries to date, most likely from the Yankees, Angels, Cardinals, Tigers and Astros, with the Dodgers and Red Sox possibly involved as the 6th team. Additional Nats that have been rumored to be on the trading block include Livan Hernandez, Jose Guillen, Ramon Ortiz, Mike Stanton, and Gary Majewski. I'll use today's blogspace to run down the most interesting rumors (in no particualr order) from these teams as well as other hot rumors floating about and offer my comments...

Orioles Express "Strong Interest" In Soriano; Willing To Deal Pitching

From today's Washington Post:
At some point, several team sources acknowledged, the Orioles will likely have to deal from their pitching surplus to acquire a major league hitter. The Orioles have strong interest in free-agents-to-be Carlos Lee of the Milwaukee Brewers and the Washington Nationals' Alfonso Soriano (as an outfielder), but it's uncertain whether either of them will have interest in Baltimore. So an upgrade in the lineup will most likely have to come through trade.
The Orioles are just the sort of club to deal with. A fairly incompetent front office (the excellent Corey Patterson trade notwithstanding) coupled with an owner who tends to get infatuated with big-name signings is music to my ears. Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, and Nick Markakis are the obvious targets here, though Val Majewski is also intriguing despite a 2005 shoulder injury.

Livan To The Mets Rumor Warms Up

From Ken Davidoff at Newsday:
Everything in Omar Minaya's history says he'll acquire a pitcher between now and July 31. He'd rather be overly proactive than overly passive. The glaring need lies in the starting rotation, of course, and there are very few upgrades available from the quintet the Mets currently employ.

In return for Livan Hernandez, the Nationals still wonder whether they can get Lastings Milledge or Mike Pelfrey. They can't, of course. Washington must be motivated to move Hernandez's salary in return for little talent, and then Minaya can really negotiate with his counterpart Jim Bowden. Expect the Nats to relent as we approach July 31, and for Minaya to reunite the Hernandez half-brothers, just as he did in Montreal three years ago.
Moving Livan makes a ton of sense at this point in his career. I love the guy's attitude (especially his chats with fans while he's in the on-deck circle and the spontaneous gear throw-aways), but I'd take mid-tier prosects to be rid of his gimpy knees. The Mets would be on the hook for the remainder of his $8M salary for 2006 and $7M in 2007, the final year of his contract. For a deep-pocketed team like the Mets in need of a pitcher and with their best shot in years to go deep into the playoffs, I could very well a deal happening. Mets prospects that I'd like to get - Lastings Milledge or Mike Pelfrey. Mets prospects I think we will get - Victor Diaz and (pick one) Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez, or Anderson Hernandez.

Astro's Might Not Be Done Dealing

Richard Justice at the Houston Chronicle kind of obliquely suggests that there is more to be done:
"[Recently traded Devil Ray Aubrey] Huff isn't as good as Alfonso Soriano, who appears to be the best hitter on the trading block. The Astros didn't have to give up Jason Hirsh or Hunter Pence, either."
Houston is 3.5 back in the NL wild card and Astros GM Tim Pupura must be under some pressure to make a serious run with this "likely" being Roger Clemens' last season. Jason Lane was optioned after the Huff trade went down, so signs point to Huff spending most of his time in RF. Still, Houston is in need of a run-producer to liven up its stale offense. If Pupura thinks Huff won't be enough, he could get involved with the Sori Sweepstakes. I rather doubt he'd give up organization uber-prospects Jason Hirsh or Hunter Pence to get him though.

Angels Leading The Pack In The Sori Sweepstakes

Writes Bill Shaikin at the Los Angeles Times:
The Angels have made no secret of their interest in supplementing the offense with a powerful veteran hitter, with Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Bobby Abreu among the candidates. To get one, though, Stoneman probably would have to surrender several of those top prospects.
I discussed my affinity for a Sori trade to Anaheim yesterday, pointing in particular to 2B Howie Kendrick as my preferred target. Anaheim ranks 11th and 12th in the AL in runs and home runs, respectively. Despite this power outage, they are in fine position to win the weak AL West (when was the last time you could say that?) despite being 2 games under .500 at the break. The Angels have a deep farm system with talent at every level. According to Joel Sherman at the New York Post, front office types are in agreement that the Angels are the front-runners for Soriano. Keep an eye out for this trade to happen at any time.

12:16 PM UPDATE: No sooner had I hit the "Publish" button on this post than I noticed the latest Soriano-to-Anaheim rumor on Tim Dierke's excellent MLBTradeRumors.com blog. Of the available names he mentions, I like SS Erick Aybar and 3B Dallas McPherson the best.

Yankess Interest In Sori Is Tepid At Best

Anthony McCarron with the New York Daily News offers this insight:
If it's just a money issue, such as swallowing one or two gargantuan contracts out of Philadelphia (Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell or Jon Lieber), the Yankees clearly have to make a deal. If it costs elite prospects, a trade for Dontrelle Willis or Alfonso Soriano could strip the minor-league system of its top tier. We'll see if GM Brian Cashman is serious about keeping youngsters or desperate because Boston is in first. Will Phillip Hughes still be the organization's jewel at the July 31 trading deadline?
Bob Klapisch with NorthJersey.com adds his $.02 as well:

Where's Soriano going?

The suitors include the Dodgers and Angels, and the Yankees are at the lower end of the list. Their caution is curious, given the need for offense. But unlike the Phillies, the Nationals have no incentive to move Soriano for less than a top-line prospect like Hughes. And Cashman just won't budge.

And even though Soriano is a proven New York commodity, the Yankees worry that his hitting profile has changed. It's true he is on a pace for 50-something homers, but his average has dropped significantly since he batted .300 in pinstripes in 2002.

Also, Soriano is headed for a career-high 160-something strikeouts. That's the last thing the Yankees need -- another swing-for-the-planets weapon who can be dissected by a smart pitcher.

Obviously, the Yankees are in the 2nd tier of suitors for Soriano. It's been before said that the Yankees soured on Soriano when he last played for them, and these two nuggets do nothing to dispel my thinking that a trade back to the Yankees is not likely to happen. Perhaps Jose Guillen would be more enticing to t he prospect-strapped Yankees though...? As the NY Post's Joel Sherman reports, RHP Philip Hughes has been targeted by the Nats, though he is apparently "untouchable."

Livan Beantown-bound?

Michael Silverman at the Boston Herald thinks the Bloated One could fit right in as an affordable 5th starter with the Red Sox:
Could a fifth starter be had in a trade? Names being fed into baseball’s rumor mill include San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt, Washington’s Livan Hernandez, Atlanta’s John Smoltz, Philadelphia’s Jon Lieber, the Cubs’ Greg Maddux and Oakland’s Barry Zito.

Hernandez and Lieber are the only two who will not require an exorbitant price tag in terms of the Sox giving up talent, but they come with performance questions. With Curt Schilling having just taken a hard line drive off his elbow and with no one saying definitively he can make his next start on Saturday, the urgency of finding another arm only grows.
I would put this in the high 2nd-tier of possible deals. Boston always seems to make a deal at the deadline thanks to their every-present paranoia about a 2nd half Yankees run. I like SS/2B Dustin Pedroia, RHP Clay Buchholz, and RHP Michael Bowden. Any and all would be nice additions to the farm.

Dodger Also In The Mix For Livan

I noticed this little tid-bit from Allison Ann Otto at the Inland Southern California Press-Enterprise:
Ned Colletti has said the team with the best pitching will probably win the division. Stars Dontrelle Willis, Barry Zito and Livan Hernandez could be enticing late-season acquisitions, but the prices would likely be steep and involve top prospects.
In the weak NL West, Colletti is probably right. Brad Penny tends to fade and/or get hurt as the season wears on, and beyond him and Derek Lowe, the Dodgers' rotation is weak. They could use a workhorse like Livan and their farm system is one of the top ones in the majors. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are both seriously good OF prospects and 2004 first round pick LHP Scott Elbert has been superb in 24 starts in A-Ball. Since Kemp is currently holding down LF for the Dodgers, the Nats might perhaps want to throw in Guillen as well and really stock up on lower level Dodger farm goodness.

That's All Folks

The rumor-mill is in high gear these days. I'll try to stay on top of it as we near the deadline. How JimBo handles this trading deadline and the rebuilding of the farm is going to be the most important challenge of his tenure in DC so far. As the Washington Post today points out in an excellent graphic, JimBo's trading record has been distinctly sub-par to this point. I'm still willing to give our embattled GM the benefit of the doubt due to the constraints MLB's ownership of the club put him under, but now that we're in the Lerner/Kasten promised land, it's time for him to start delivering. If July 31 comes and goes and we're nowhere closer to resurrecting the once proud Expos farm system, my support for Bowden could end up on life-support with little chance of recovery.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 8:59 AM 1 comments

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

 

Grand Reopening...

As my two loyal readers no doubt noticed, I have been away for some time now. Without getting into specifics, in my professional life I do work on K St. and have been involved in some major legislation currently making its winding way through Congress. As such, I have had little (read, no) time to blog about the Nats. Never fear, though, my love for our beloved team has not diminshed despite our sucky season to this point.

With that in mind, I thought that new owner Ted Lerner's and new president Stan Kasten's much-ballyhooed "re-opening" of RFK was as good an excuse as any to fire up the 'ol blog again. Huzzah! Caveat: Congress's return from recess could interrupt my blogging schedule at any minute, so I'll leave that out there as my catch-all excuse going forward.

Speaking of the re-opening, how cool is that? Lowering the ticket prices will play well for a team that should trying to draw in lower-income residents of the area. The $7.50 "value meal" is still too pricey for my tastes (get it?), though. I was at the first game of the Tampa Bay series a week ago and was shocked at just how quickly the $60 I budgeted for the game got spent on parking and refreshments for me, my wife, and our 2 year-old. Still, these are small quibbles with the larger aim -- relaunching the franchise to show DC that Lerner & Co. really care about the city and won't just hold serve while the new stadium gets built.

On the baseball side of things, I'm happy that Kasten and Lerner have put the focus on player development. That said, I'm not sure that making Jim Bowden's GM position permanent was the best way to go about this, though JimBo is certainly saying all the right things regarding rebuilding the farm. I'll associate myself with the astute comments of Mr. Oliver on this count. It seems that I am not alone if my wish that JimBo be given a shorter leash... I'll restate my desire that Jim DePodesta (currently special assistant to baseball operations for the Padres, and an Alexandria native) or Kim Ng (VP and AGM for the Dodgers) be strongly considered for the position as both have a strong track record of building minor league talent.

Looking forward to the second half, I don't see much of a turnaround in store for this team. Obviously, pitching injuries (Patterson, Astacio, Lawrence, etc. etc. ad infinitum) have been the main culprit of the Nats' dismal 38-52 record, though the statistical cliff dives by Livan, Schneider and Guillen have also contributed mightily. (Excellent article on this topic at Capitol Punishment today, by the way) At this point, 15.5 games out of first place in the division and 9 games out of the NL wildcard, I'm ready to call it a season and start shipping off marketable talent. Which brings me to my final point...

Soriano. The guy has had an MVP-caliber 1st half and is one of, if not the first names that get mentioned when discussion turns to mid-season trades. I was one of the few bloggers in NatsLand who liked the Wilk-for-Sori deal from the beginning, though the whole "I don't wanna play left field" saga prior to the season had me chomping at the bit to be rid of the guy. Fortunately for the Nats, Soriano has outperformed all expectations to this point. Now is the time to cash in. Over the past 30 days, Sori's average has declined by 26 points and his OBP is down by 23 points. His career 2nd half OPS is .823, which is nothing to write home about. In short, now is the time to sell high on him. I'll go out on a limb here and say that Soriano's 1st half could be the best thing to happen to the Nats/Expos farm system since Omar Minaya left the team -- if JimBo can make the right deal happen. Don't buy into Sori's "I'm happy in DC," spiel either. That might as well have come straight out of his agent's mouth.

I repeat: Sell now. Sell now. Sell now.

But for who?

In my opinion, the most likely landing zones for Soriano will be (in order of preference) Anaheim, Detroit, or White Sox. Anaheim has by far the best prospects of the three. Check the Los Angeles Times for the most recent rumor-mongering on this subject. The Times seems to think that Soriano would not cost major-league ready talent such as Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, or Howie Kendrick. I would disagree. In a one-for-one, I'd only be happy if the Nats got one of the three. Kendrick, in particular, is probably the most attainable and would fit in nicely at 2B as we approach the end of the Jose Vidro era. Brandon Wood and Eric Aybar are two other interesting targets to fill the Guzman-sized hole at SS. The Detroit farm system is distinctly middle-tier, though there are some intiguing names, such as Cameron Maybin, Joel Zumaya, Jordan Tata, and Humberto Sanchez. Hat-tip to the esteemed John Sickels for his great run-downs of the top 20 prospects in both organizations. The ChiSox are the least attractive prospect-wise, but could probably make the most use of our power-hitting LF by moving Scott Podsednik to CF and benching Brian Anderson (he of the .192 average). Prospect names to consider include RHP Lance Broadway, OF Ryan Sweeney, and the aforementioned Anderson.

With that said, I'll sign off for today. Here's to a 72-win second half of the season for our Nationals!

# posted by JammingEcono @ 9:28 AM 2 comments

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