Wednesday, January 02, 2008
New Year's Resolutions
Happy New Year to one and all! As we recover in our own ways from those champagne hangovers, most of us will turn our thoughts to resolutions for 2008. While we can't know that darkness lurks within the minds of the Nats' front office gurus, I'll take a stab at what they should be promising to do with the Nats in '08.
- Keep Elijah Dukes on the straight and narrow. I, for one, am ready to believe in the guy until proven otherwise (and this is a good start). If Da Meathook and his other handlers can help him grow up a bit, the Nats will have a very nice bat on their hands, possibly making Kearns expendable in RF.
- Let Milledge grow into the CF position. I see very little reason why Milledge shouldn't be allowed to experience some growing pains at CF. The team needs to be patient with his inevitable mistakes in the field at his growing pains at the plate. (It's not like the playoffs are at stake, despite what Ladson thinks.) The potential payoff could put the Church/Schneider trade on par with the Scott Kazmir deal in the annals of Mets infamy.
- Don't expect much from Lo Duca. The Dukes and Milledge deals were inspired risks. The LoDuca signing was a snoozer. The best that I can say about it is that the contract is a short one. For the definitive debunking of any illusions there may be about LoDuca's talent, I highly recommend my esteemed colleague's take from a while back at CP.
- Sign Kris Benson. I was shocked (SHOCKED!) to see that Benson's career ERA+ is 102. The rotator cuff issue is obviously a huge concern (though reports from his throwing session were good), but that just makes him an affordable risk on a one-year make-good deal. Best-case, you get 150-170 IP and a 4.60-ish ERA that can be dealt at the deadline or turned into a Class B free agent. Worst case, his shoulder blows up again and you waste the $7M is will likely take to sign him and let the kids pitch more. Oh, and insert obligatory Anna Benson = butts in seats JPG here for the benefit of the mouth-breathers. Other interesting names: Josh Towers, Rodrigo Lopez...
Monday, December 03, 2007
Just When You Thought It Was Safe...
Elijah Dukes to the Nats for the well-traveled PTNBL, according to multiple sources.
Not sure how I feel about this one. Obviously the kid has talent, but it's all clouded by the character issues. I'll reserve judgement until I find out who the PTNBL was.
I would guess that the publicized JimBo/Meathook meeting in Tampa with Dukes was something akin to the one JimBo & Co. had with Dmitri last year, e.g. "we want you to be a part of the team and we will give you an opportunity to succeed, but if you screw up, it's adios, jefe."
UPDATE: The PTBNL is LHP Glenn Gibson. Chris has all the details over at CP.
Not sure how I feel about this one. Obviously the kid has talent, but it's all clouded by the character issues. I'll reserve judgement until I find out who the PTNBL was.
I would guess that the publicized JimBo/Meathook meeting in Tampa with Dukes was something akin to the one JimBo & Co. had with Dmitri last year, e.g. "we want you to be a part of the team and we will give you an opportunity to succeed, but if you screw up, it's adios, jefe."
UPDATE: The PTBNL is LHP Glenn Gibson. Chris has all the details over at CP.
Friday, November 30, 2007
We Just Bamboozled the Mets
Wow, just saw the news. WFAN reporting (and Rosenthal confirming) that the Nats have traded Brian Schneider and Ryan Church to the Mets for Lastings Milledge. I'm going to join with Chris at CP and Brian at NFA in calling this a BIG win for the Nats.
Mets fans are in a tizzy. Tee hee.
More analysis to come later.
Mets fans are in a tizzy. Tee hee.
More analysis to come later.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Leadoff Hitters
Continuing with my theme of evaluating the free agent market, let's look at what's out there in the market for lead-off hitters. Unfortunately, "true" leadoff men in the classic sense of the word are among the rarest hitters there are. Think Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki as the modern-day prototype and see if you can come up with five other hitters who fit that mold and you'll see what I mean. While such hitters may be rare, they're not (yet) extinct. Here's the qualities (in order of importance) I would look for if I was wearing the GM sombrero:
Most of the stats are self-explanatory, but I did a little projectifying and came up with the Extrapolated 2B stats which assume 500 ABs for all the players. I did this to account for injuries (Baldelli) and limited playing time in the #1 spot (Crisp) and to better compare the players listed with guys who led off most of the year (Castillo, Lopez). Doubles are a useful way to evaluate speed since a good lead-off man should be able to turn a long single into a double. As with yesterday, the James and Chone average OBP projections may not be terribly reliable since the full 2008 data for the other major projections systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, etc.) have yet to be released.
So what does it all mean? I enjoyed my list so much yesterday let's use it again.
- OBP (You can't steal first)
- Speed (The ability to turn a single into a double or go from 1st to 3rd on a hit)
- Durability (A problem at the position for the Nats in recent years)
- Stolen Bases (Overrated, but still a useful metric.
Most of the stats are self-explanatory, but I did a little projectifying and came up with the Extrapolated 2B stats which assume 500 ABs for all the players. I did this to account for injuries (Baldelli) and limited playing time in the #1 spot (Crisp) and to better compare the players listed with guys who led off most of the year (Castillo, Lopez). Doubles are a useful way to evaluate speed since a good lead-off man should be able to turn a long single into a double. As with yesterday, the James and Chone average OBP projections may not be terribly reliable since the full 2008 data for the other major projections systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, Marcel, etc.) have yet to be released.
| Name | Age (2008 Opening Day) | 2007 OBP | 2007 SB | 2007 CS | 2007 Extap. 2B | Bill James OBP (proj.) | Chone OBP (proj.) | Avg OBP (proj.) |
| Rocco Baldelli | 26 | .268 | 4 | 1 | 26 | .329 | .326 | .328 |
| Luis Castillo | 33 | .362 | 19 | 6 | 16 | .370 | .364 | .367 |
| Coco Crisp | 28 | .330 | 28 | 6 | 37 | .335 | .338 | .337 |
| David DeJesus | 28 | .351 | 10 | 4 | 23 | .361 | .358 | .360 |
| Darin Erstad | 34 | .310 | 7 | 2 | 27 | .322 | .321 | .322 |
| Felipe Lopez | 27 | .308 | 24 | 9 | 22 | .336 | .329 | .333 |
| Nook Logan | 28 | .304 | 23 | 5 | 22 | .313 | .301 | .307 |
| Kenny Lofton | 40 | .367 | 23 | 7 | 24 | .347 | .351 | .349 |
| Kazuo Matsui | 32 | .342 | 32 | 4 | 40 | .350 | .315 | .333 |
| Juan Pierre | 30 | .331 | 64 | 15 | 23 | .343 | .333 | .338 |
So what does it all mean? I enjoyed my list so much yesterday let's use it again.
- Just because you're fast doesn't make you lead-off material, Nook.
- Kazuo Matsui's 2007 numbers are seriously Coors-inflated.
- Coco Crisp ain't the answer to lead-off.
- David DeJesus and Luis Castillo pass the sniff test.
Can any of the last hold-outs who think that Nook Logan could lead-off please cease and desist with this fairy tale? The same goes for Guzman and his career .317 OBP when batting #1. Yes, I know that Guz was a .380 OBP hitter in 2007, but the sample size was just too small in '07 to be able to make any call on whether he's over his hackin' ways.
Check his home-away splits if you don't believe me. Moving on...
As a cheap upside play at CF, maybe, but he's not going to set the table for anyone.
Of the two, DeJesus would be preferable thanks to his relative youth and affordable contract ($2.5M in '08). A trade isn't totally out of the picture either, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Castillo is a free agent, affordable (I expect something in the $5-6M range), and similar to DeJesus stat-wise. DeJesus has a touch more power while Castillo has a better BB/K ratio. The two biggest negative with Castillo in my mind is that playing him would likely necessitate a trade of Lopez, Belliard or both and his age. At 33, we're probably getting too close to his likely decline phase to be handing out a multi-year contract. I wouldn't be manning the barricades if it happened though (especially if some useful part came by way of a Lopez deal).
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Go Big or Go Home on CF Free Agents
Happy Opening Day, everyone! Of course I'm not talking about the real Opening Day, rather Opening Day of the Hot Stove League. As we are 15 days out from the end of the World Series, teams can now officially talk to free agents.
To get me back into the blogging routine, I'm going to spend the next three postings running the numbers of those three player groups. Of course, a CF and a middle-of-the-order hitter aren't mutually exclusive, so don't expect so don't expect me be a stickler about that rule. Today, we'll focus on the CF free-agent candidates, and for kicks, I'll throw in the Nats' in-house CFs for comparison.
Most of the chart below is self-explanatory. For the statistically uninitiated, OPS is On-Base % + Slugging %; RZR is Revised Zone Rating; OOZ is Out of Zone Outs. Evaluating fielding statistics is still a developing art, but RZR and OOZ are two of the better ones, so I'll run with those for our purposes. Just remember to take them with a pinch of salt. H/T to FanGraphs for the Bill James projections, Chone Smith for the eponymous projections, and THT for the RZR and OOZ numbers.
So what kind of conclusions can we draw from this exercise?
This much is certain: Washington seeks any or all of the following: a middle-of-the-order slugger, a center fielder and a veteran starting pitcher to help provide stability to a young rotation.Not my words, rather those of Washington Times' Mark Zuckerman today. Sounds like a good offseason priority list to me.
To get me back into the blogging routine, I'm going to spend the next three postings running the numbers of those three player groups. Of course, a CF and a middle-of-the-order hitter aren't mutually exclusive, so don't expect so don't expect me be a stickler about that rule. Today, we'll focus on the CF free-agent candidates, and for kicks, I'll throw in the Nats' in-house CFs for comparison.
Most of the chart below is self-explanatory. For the statistically uninitiated, OPS is On-Base % + Slugging %; RZR is Revised Zone Rating; OOZ is Out of Zone Outs. Evaluating fielding statistics is still a developing art, but RZR and OOZ are two of the better ones, so I'll run with those for our purposes. Just remember to take them with a pinch of salt. H/T to FanGraphs for the Bill James projections, Chone Smith for the eponymous projections, and THT for the RZR and OOZ numbers.
| Name | Age (Opening Day 2008) | Bill James OPS (proj.) | Chone OPS (proj.) | Avg OPS | RZR (2007) | OOZ (2007) |
| Mike Cameron | 35 | .764 | .766 | .765 | .894 | 53 |
| Brady Clark | 34 | .715 | .725 | .720 | .840 | 5 |
| Jeff DaVanon | 34 | N/A | .689 | .689 | .861 | 5 |
| Darren Erstad | 33 | .685 | .685 | .685 | .896 | 19 |
| Steve Finley | 44 | N/A | .696 | .696 | .854 | 4 |
| Jerry Hairston, Jr. | 31 | .673 | .661 | .667 | .891 | 9 |
| Torii Hunter | 32 | .811 | .836 | .824 | .891 | 47 |
| Andruw Jones | 30 | .834 | .811 | .823 | .921 | 80 |
| Kenny Lofton | 40 | .718 | .735 | .727 | .667 | 0 |
| Corey Patterson | 28 | .733 | .707 | .720 | .949 | 46 |
| Curtis Pride | 39 | N/A | .588 | .588 | N/A | N/A |
| Aaron Rowand | 30 | .820 | .786 | .803 | .861 | 69 |
| Brad Wilkerson | 30 | .804 | .771 | .788 | N/A | N/A |
| Ryan Church | 29 | .815 | .764 | .790 | .912 | 14 |
| Nook Logan | 28 | .636 | .631 | .634 | .912 | 42 |
| Justin Maxwell | 25 | N/A | .615 | .615 | 1.000 | 1 |
So what kind of conclusions can we draw from this exercise?
- Nook Logan and Ryan Church are both a pretty good center fielders.
- Ryan Church is a decent bet to outperform some big-time free agent talent at the plate.
- Justin Maxwell may one day be the answer in center field, but it's waaaaay too soon to make that call definitively.
- Making a serious run at Andruw Jones makes sense.
This may seem obvious to most, but it took me looking at these numbers to accept just how well teh Nookster performed in the field. His range factor outperformed all the free agent CFs except for Andruw Jones and Corey Patterson and he tied Church. What is particularly interesting to me is that they both outperformed perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter, at least by the limited metric of range factor. Nook actually had made Out of Zone outs on a more frequent basis than Hunter (once per 17 innings played at the position versus 1:27 for Hunter and 1:23 for Church), reinforcing the conclusion.
I'll caveat this statement by noting that I'm going by an average of only two projection systems; Bill James' and Chone. Other notable projection systems (PECOTA, Marcel, ZiPS) have yet to release their full 2008 data. That said, unless my averages change dramatically when the new data comes in, Church is projected to out-OPS all of the 2nd-tier CF free agent talent, including rumored Nats targets, Mike Cameron and Brad Wilkerson.
There's just not enough data to go on with Maxwell to say that he will be good enough to hold down a starting CF slot. Given the fact that he has less than two full seasons of minor league stats (none above high-A) I think it would be rash to think that he's legitimately in the picture for 2008 despite a nice little run when he got his cup o' joe in DC this year.
And finally...
Among the free agent center fielders, the only name that provides a significant upgrade at the position (admittedly, by the imperfect metrics I've laid out) is Andruw Jones. He had a better RZR and nearly doubled Hunter's OOZ numbers in only one less game. Despite his Boras-inflated value he could still be somewhat affordable thanks to this down 2007. While his .222/.311/.413 campaign this year was atrocious, he's still averaged .249/.341/.507 and nearly 40 HR per year over the past three seasons. Will be strike out a lot? Yes, but he'll also be a legitimate power bat who provides plus defense in center. Should the Nats lock themselves into a 5-year, $100 million deal to get him? I'm not ready to go THAT far. That said, Scott Boras' first and foremost concern is getting paid. Given his sub-par 2007, I doubt that anyone is going to throw stupid money at Jones so Boras could be flexible.
The ideal Jones signing in my mind would be a $16-17M one-year make-good type deal in the hopes of trading him for kids at the deadline or nabbing compensation picks when he walks. Given the relative lack of CF's on the farm that could make an impact soon (yes, even Maxwell), I wouldn't necessarily turn my nose up at a 3-year deal for Jones in the $45-48M range either.
What would really get my panties in a bunch would be if the Nats made a half-assed "well, we tried" offer to Jones and then gave a multi-year commitment to an overrated bat like Aaron Rowand or Mike Cameron to assuage the "need" for a "flashy" signing as the team enters the new park. If JimKast can't land Jones, there's really nothing wrong with putting Church in center and concentrating on getting one or two reliable (if not world-beating) innings sinks into the rotation.
In other words, go big or go home.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Sunday Morning Coffee With the Nats
A couple bits of Nats news this weekend piqued my interest. First off, are the Yanks kicking the tires on Zimmerman? Joel Sherman from the New York Post offers some prognostication:
Phil Rogers at ChicagoSports.com notes that the Nats could be more concerned about Zimmerman's wrist surgery than had been previously thought:
In any case, I'm drinking the dregs of my Chock Full O' Nuts and there's a crib in need of refinishing n my shed, so I'll sign off for now.
WANTED - Third baseman HITS - Preferably right-handed with pop to replace Alex Rodriguez and balance a lefty-leaning lineup. ... Ryan Zimmerman would be ideal. But the Yanks have found Washington GM Jim Bowden impossible to deal with even for middle relievers.Considering Zimm is a cornerstone of the franchise and that the Nats don't have a ready replacement at 3B in the minors, I don't see a deal here either. What I found more interesting was the rumor of talks between JimBo and New York for middle relievers (read: Rauch, Cordero). Please, please, please don't tell me that Johnny Damon is on the Nats' CF shopping list.
Phil Rogers at ChicagoSports.com notes that the Nats could be more concerned about Zimmerman's wrist surgery than had been previously thought:
The Nationals are worried about their terrific young third baseman, Ryan Zimmerman, who had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his left wrist, a difficult injury for a power hitter.I don't read too much in to this. Any time your star player gets cut open you worry, but I'm still putting my faith in the 4-6 week recovery time that Ladson reported on Thursday.
In any case, I'm drinking the dregs of my Chock Full O' Nuts and there's a crib in need of refinishing n my shed, so I'll sign off for now.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Blowing Off the Dust...
Well, it's been another eventful season for our Nationals. As my legions of readers (all two of you) no doubt realized, I've neglected the blog terribly this season. I offer a multitude of reasons for the lack of postings:
With that in mind, I'd like to start my renewed interest in the blog with a look back at my last posting, which sadly occurred more than 7 months ago. In it, I made a bunch of predictions about the then-impending 2008 season. I realize that we're already more than a month into the Nats' offseason and that my esteemed colleagues in the Natosphere have already posted their excellent season roundups. Nonetheless, I consider this my tune-up post, so let's see how I did:
So that's it for the first post-season posting. Don't call it a comeback. I never left.
- A second child (another girl, and cute as a button!).
- Other stuff.
With that in mind, I'd like to start my renewed interest in the blog with a look back at my last posting, which sadly occurred more than 7 months ago. In it, I made a bunch of predictions about the then-impending 2008 season. I realize that we're already more than a month into the Nats' offseason and that my esteemed colleagues in the Natosphere have already posted their excellent season roundups. Nonetheless, I consider this my tune-up post, so let's see how I did:
Player most likely to outperform expectations - Not that anyone on this club really has high expectations to live up, of course. That said, I know it's wrong and that he'll just break my heart in the end, but I'll go out on a limb and buy into the spring Guzman hype. .265/.320/.400 for the Guz sounds about right.Conclusion: Incomplete data. The injured hammy on Opening Day along with the season-ending thumb injury on June 24 resulted in only 174 AB in 2007. While this isn't exactly a Rick Short type of sample size on which to base overblown projections, I think Guz would have likely met or exceeded expectations had he been healthy enough for 400+ AB.
Player most likely to underperform expectations - J-Patt, unfortunately. I just can't see him staying healthy for an entire season. PECOTA projects a meager 95 IP, which I think he'll beat, but I don't think he'll make it to 150 IP. Let's say 115 IP, 4.20 ERA.Conclusion: Even worse than expected. Recurring injuries limited Patterson to less than 50 IP for the second straight season. At this point, I think he's one more underwhelming performance away from officially deserving the flame-out tag. In the meantime, we get to enjoy the offseason "drama" of weekly updates on J-Patt's recovery. With the Rays in need of starting pitching, I wonder if Bowden hasn't dangled Patterson as part of his rumored interest in oft-injured CF Rocco Baldelli?
Zimm v.2 - No sophomore slump for the pride of Clarendon. .300-25-100, and your starting third baseman for the NL All-Star team (David Wright, who? Miguel Cabrera, wha?)Conclusion: D'oh! Zimm did indeed undergo a mild sophomore slump, regressing slightly by most offensive measures and in the field (8 more errors than in '06), though he remains a significantly better defensive 3B than league average.
Attendance - The season ticket delivery snafu, the removal of Hard Times Cafe, and a fairly awful team do not attendance records make. Nats fall below 2 million in attendance on the year for the first time since they returned to Washington.Conclusion: Yahtzee! Admittedly, this wasn't a hard prediction to make, what with the exceedingly low preseason expectations and it being the last year at RFK. For what it's worth, I also think that 2007 will be the last season in a generation that the team will attract less than 2 million fans.
Date when Nook Logan gets replaced in the starting lineup - May 20 vs Baltimore. People who look at that .351 spring OBP and see hope need to take a crash course on why you shouldn't rely on small sample sizes.Conclusion: Semi-D'oh! Logan did indeed continue starting when he got back from his Opening Day foot strain, but his .265/.304/.345 line in 325 AB did nothing to change my opinion that he doesn't belong in any team's starting lineup, despite the strong defensive showing. He flitted in and out of the starting lineup and never really got going aside from a brief hot stretch in July-August. Needham has the definitive take on the 2007 Nats CF position and I highly recommend it.
Trade deadline moves - Dmitri Young gets traded to the Cubs to fill in for an injured Derrek Lee, giving Casto the playing time he deserves at 1B.Conclusion: Nuh-uh. Totally off on this one. Meathook blew away everyone's expectations and got a deserved spot on the All-Star team and the NL's Comeback Player of the Year Award. Did he deserve the 2 year/$10M deal? Given the dearth of free agent talent at this position this offseason and the as-yet unknown factor of Nick Johnson's health, I cautiously applauded this deal. In kind of a bass-akwards way, Young's deal also didn't cost the Nats compensation picks, since he barely failed to make the Type B cut in Elias' rankings.
2007 Record - 64-98, 5th place in the NL East. I think Shawn Hill will surprise and Jerome Williams will hold down a spot in the rotation, but I don't expect to see Nick Johnson back before mid-August and the effect of his lost OBP can't be overstated.Conclusion: Way wrong. 9 games off should be cause for me to hang my head in shame and teach me that it's OK to be a biased fanboy from time to time rather than a stat geek.
So that's it for the first post-season posting. Don't call it a comeback. I never left.
