Monday, March 20, 2006

 

Soriano Trade Odds

With the anticipated return from the WBC of the 500-lb gorilla to beautiful Viera expected today or tomorrow, the issue of what to do to resolve the Sori Saga returns with a vengeance this week. As much as I'd like to believe that he will suck up his pride and move to left field as he's told, I doubt very much that things will end that amicably. Alfonso reads the papers and knows just how bad this season is going to be for the Nationals. Earlier this month, I predicted a 78-84 record for the 2006 Nats. With Ayala and Lawrence done for the season and Guzman's shoulder iffy at best, I'm revising that prediction down to 74-88, and that could be being generous. Methinks that Soriano can read the same writing on the wall that I do. Dave Sheinin's excellent reporting on the back story behind the Soriano-Wilkerson deal suggests that Soriano is more concerned with his identity as a second baseman than any financial loss he would incur from a move to the outfield. One could guess that another reason Soriano would have to be obstinate is a desire to play for a winning team.

I have a bad feeling that this situation is only going to get messier. At the end of it all, I see Soriano getting shipped out for much less than was given up to get him. With that in mind, I'm going to throw out a bunch of possible trade destinations that could resolve the situation. Note that none of these have any basis in a rumor I've read anywhere and are my prognostications only. Any money you lose betting on my trade odds is your own damn fault.
Feel free to discuss any or all (or an idea of your own) in the comments.

*UPDATE* It's lukewarm interest at best, but Newsweek and NorthJersey.com, generally reliable conduits for Mets F.O. thinking, both had stories on Saturday mentioning Soriano, along with Boston's Tony Graffanino, as a trade candidate considering Kazuo Matsui's latest knee injury.

Noted Newsweek's Bob Herzog:
There are some trade possibilities, notably Tony Graffanino with the Red Sox and perhaps the expensive Alfonso Soriano once he returns to the Nationals from the WBC. However, the Mets aren't likely to pursue Soriano now that their offense has been beefed up with the addition of Carlos Delgado in the offseason.
NorthJersey.com's Steve Popper was similarly sanguine about Sori:
While the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox have a glut at the spot, the Mets are not enamored with Alfonso Soriano -- preferring defense for this team -- and are likely to at least give [rookie 2B Anderson] Hernandez a chance before making a move for help.
While both reports are less-than-favorable towards a Mets trade for Soriano, the mention of a deal continues the faint drumbeat of interest that has been sounded by the Mets for the past month-plus.

P.S. I know it's a Nats blog, but as a proud member of the GMU class of 1999, I've got to give a big shout out to my Sweet Sixteen-bound Patriots. GO MASON!!!

# posted by JammingEcono @ 12:57 PM 5 comments

Thursday, March 16, 2006

 

Rumor: Griffey for Soriano?

The hot news on the wire this morning comes from the Spanish language El Nuevo Dia via Tim at the great MLBTradeRumors.com blog. The rumor is that JimBo is talking to Cincinnati about a possible Ken Griffey, Jr. for Soriano swap.

As much as I'd like to see the Soriano situation resolved posthaste, I don't think that this is the way to do it, at least not in a one-for-one swap. You'd basically be trading one problem for a more expensive, older problem. Granted, by all accounts Griff is not the clubhouse cancer that Soriano is, but the man is 35 years old, is due $41.5M over the next three years, and hasn't cracked 500 ABs since 1999. The cavernous RFK outfield would only service highlight Griffey's defensive inadequacies. The guys in my fantasy league used to have a "When will Griff get hurt?" pool, for crying out loud. The cock-eyed optimist would point out that over the past 3 years Griffey has played progressively more games (53, 83, 128) and had a nice 2005 campaign (.301-35-92). This is one case where the optimist in me doesn't win out, though. I still don't trust those gimpy hammies. Anyone that thinks we'd be getting the 1990's vintage Griff would only be setting themselves up for disappointment.

Zephyrs Doing the Right Thing

In an age where it's so easy to criticize big-time sports stars for their big-time egos, it's nice to hear that there is still kindness to be had in the butthroat business of professional baseball. Such is the case with the AAA New Orleans Zephyrs who are joining up with the Magical Builders and the Frank Foundation to help renovate the West Bank Boys & Girls Club that was heavily damaged by Hurrican Katrina. on April 6, Opening Day for the Zephyrs, kids will get in free to the game with a paying adult. This is really a great gesture by the Zephyrs and MLB. To read more about the event and the effort to restore the Boys & Girls Club, click here. None of this happens without money, of course, and donations are always welcome. You can give to online to the Magical Builders here.

In other news, Guzman is hurting with a sore shoulder and is being sent for a second opinion. Chris at Capitol Punishment does a great job of breaking down the fallout. Basil at Federal Baseball does his best with some small s Spring Training sample sizes and thinks that Watson, DeFelice, and Tucker have the best shots to make the trip north. OMG concurs, and exposes Alex Escobar for the fraud he is. BallWonk does a great job of taking what little visual evidence we have of the new stadium's dimensions and making a diagram of the field. Left field will play verrrry interestingly if this is the final design. Finally, Farid at Beltway Boys has some nice screen captures from the stadium video, so check them out.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 10:15 AM 3 comments

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

 

A Monument to Baseball in DC

Wow!

It's hard to put into words just how much I like the look of this new stadium. I'm no architect, and no, I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night. That said, from a purely emotional point of view, the new stadium designs are everything that I could have hoped for. Two years of imagining the great views I would be able to share with family and friends during those pleasant summer nights just took pre-cast concrete form.

Here are the images that have my heart all aflutter this morning (with my comments on each):

Southwest Aerial View
Quote: "The use of glass and pre-cast concrete (limestone was eliminated to save money) make the ballpark look modern and breaks from the popular red-brick throwback stadiums."

This was the first image I saw and my first though was "Not a red brick in site! Woo-Hoo!!" Too bad they decided against the limestone, but perhaps the new ownership will kick in some dough to bring that true "DC" touch back into the design. The river view on the right will be spectacular. Hopefully it will spur DC to do something about the pollution in the Anacostia.

Northwest Aerial View
Quote: "This is a ramp to get to the upper deck but also acts as a "viewing platform" from which fans can see the Capitol Dome to the North and the surrounding neighborhoods. There is another such platform on the other side of the stadium, affording views of the Anacostia River."

I like the viewing platform idea, but will fans in the seats themselves be able to see the Capitol Dome and the river? It looks doubtful that the Dome will be viewable from anywhere behind the plate. Too bad. I really REALLY hope those parking deck get put all the way underground. The glass and concrete along N Street is a neat design, IMO. I just hope that the retail strip has an intimate feel to it.

Southeast Aerial View
Quote: "You can also see a break in the stands -- something architects do to afford more river views, but also to break up the seating bowl into so called "seating neighborhoods' to make the 41,000-seat stadium seem more intimate. There are several entrances to the stadium from the river, which city planners hope will lead fans to explore newly planned development along the Anacostia River."

I like the "seating neighborhood" idea. Perhaps they'll even name them after real DC neighborhoods? It'd be very cool to discuss the merits of the seats in "Shaw" versus "Glover Park" Of course, the 'spensive seats behind the plate would have to be "K Street." The overall concept of tying the stadium into the surrounding neighborhood is a great one.

Northeast Aerial View
Quote: "Next to the round restaurant, on the left, is an open space to be used as a fan picnic or kids' area. The stadium will have large corridors, unlike cramped Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium, and each corridor on all levels will afford views of the playing field -- so fans can keep tabs on the action while buying concessions. ... Finally, the playing field will have an outfield wall that is asymmetrical with the following distances: 335 feet to the right field foul pole, 370 feet to the right field power alley, 409 feet to dead center, 377 feet to the left field power alley and 332 feet to the left field foul pole."

The picnic area is a great idea. As a parent, I'd love to put out a blanket and take in a game with the family in an area that the little one can run around and get her yah-yahs out it. Hopefully there will be a "picnic area" ticket that can be purchased. I'd hate to have the area be available to groups only.

The field dimensions are going to have me laying awake at night. Officially (though open to dispute) the dimensions at RFK are as follow: Left field: 335 feet, Left-Center: 385 feet, Center Field: 410 feet, Right-Center: 385 feet, Right field: 335 feet, Backstop: 60 feet

Looks like pitchers will be having a harder time at the new stadium than at RFK. The power alleys are significantly closer. Perhaps this will satisfy Guillen? At the very least, it could make it easier to attract sluggers.

Well, that's it for now. I'm sure that things will change as construction progresses, but at it stands now the stadium design is great great GREAT! Can't wait for them to break ground!

# posted by JammingEcono @ 11:37 AM 3 comments
 

Nick to Stick Around

Every so often, the Natosphere comes together, joins hands, sings "Koombayah," and gives thanks and praise to Jim Bowden. So it has been these last fews days since the news of Nick Johnson's three year $16.5M extension was announced.

MLBTradeRumors.com put it well in their analysis of the deal:
This Saturday, Johnson signed a three-year, $16.5MM pact. Given the huge discount, committing for that extra year isn't a bad move. Compare the contract to PECOTA's estimate of his worth for the next three years: $17,775,000. So Bowden saved over a million bucks even if Johnson can't maintain his 2005 level. The upside is that there's a very good chance he exceeds PECOTA's projection entering his age 27 season. By my estimation, Johnson could easily be a $12-13MM player annually.
I'll take that, thankyouverymuch.

We all know that Johnson is a patient hitter that knows how to get on base, but I didn't know just HOW good he was until I checked out his graphs:

On-Base %
As you can see, Nick's OBP is right up there with the best of them. In fact, Nick's 2005 OBP of .408 was better than a bevy of 1Bs with vastly higher pedigrees and salaries (Carlos Delgado, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, Konerko, and Sexson, to name but a few).

BB%
Obviously, a guy who gets on base as much as Nick does is likely to take more than his fair share of walks. The graphs shows this nicely with his BB% being well above league in each of the past 3 seasons.

BB/K
Again, the last three years' worth of stats bear out that Nick is real deal when it comes to recognizing a strike from a ball.

RC/G
Johnson's Runs Created/Game is still above average for the league, and his 2005 RC/27 of 6.70 put him just outside the top 10 at the position, but still above "name" players like Mike Sweeney, Kevin Millar, Sean Casey, and Lyle Overbay.

In short, Johnson is the ideal #2 hitter in the Nats lineup. No one will ever mistake him for a hulking middle-of-the-order slugger a la Big Papi, Sexson, or Delgado. Indeed, Nick brings a stick, not the lumber, to the lineup. He's a hard out every time through the order, and is just as likely to get on base as not. This sets the table for what little 3-5 power we have to knock him in. As the team develops and brings in some real sluggers, Nick's value to the team will only increase. Making Johnson a building block for the franchise is probably the best move that Bowden has made so far in 2006. Even better, Nick's contract year of 2009 will likely coincide with the first year of the new stadium, making him even more primed to produce.

Of course, the real problem with Johnson has been his talent level. That's been apparent since his days as a star prospect in the Yankees' system. His problem has been staying healthy. In my opinion, he's been a victim of bad luck as much as anything. His injuries have all been of the "freak" variety (broken cheekbone, bruised heel, etc.). For $5.5M a year, however, I'm willing to take a chance that he will be able to put it all together.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 10:03 AM 1 comments

Friday, March 10, 2006

 

Thoughts on JimBo's Extension and Frank's Future

I have a habit of leaping to the intellectual defense of anyone or anything that is being criticized, whether unfairly or not. Often, I don't really think before I do so, and this has often left me in the precarious position of trying to defend an idea without the best supporting data. So it has been with Jim Bowden, of whom, as regular readers here and on the BallParkGuys forum will note, I have been a fairly staunch defender. Here's a quick review of where I stood on some of JimBo's most criticized moves:
Various people, most of them much smarter than me, blasted each deal. To date, those critics have largely been proven right. Guzzie stunk it up in 2005, the Soriano saga looms uglier with every passing day, and Zach Day would have been very useful to the Nats given their current dicey pitching situation. Of the three, Guzman's performance in 2006 has the greatest potential to make me look less dumb.

With my mea culpa regarding Bowden's apparent missteps out of the way, I'll state for the record that I'm glad he got his contract extended through the end of the 2006 season. With no owner (for the moment) and time running out on his and Tony Siegle's deals, it was only logical to do this. I have no doubt that had some sort of provisional month-to-month deal been pitched to him, he would have told Tavares to go screw and walked ... at least that's what I would have done given all the precariousness and uncertainty that he's had to put up with since he came on in 2004. Once the new owner comes in (Tony T. predicts late May, at the earliest), he's going to want to get his feet wet before making any rash decisions. In corp speak, he'll want to do an "environmental scan" before taking on any "action items."

(BTW, speaking of The Chosen One, is it just me or is the fact that Ted Lerner is going to be named the owner the worst-kept secret in Washington?)

Several of my fellow Nats bloggers had excellent turns of phrases which encapsulate my feelings on Bowden's stay of execution:

From Basil at Federal Baseball:
So Bowden remains the decisionmaker because you cannot be without one, and even if he's relieved of his duties, the functional equivalent of him takes over. Sure, the oranges are rotten, but that's the juice we must squeeze.
Brandon at The Curly W writes:
In fact, I'll be upset if we do get rid of Bowden before the end of the 2006 season. This franchise deserves the opportunity to conduct a dilligent search for the best GM on the market, and we really won't know who is available until teams start shaking things up in October. Now that the team's future in D.C. is guaranteed, the Nationals can get the best candidate their money can buy. The last thing the team needs is another stop gap guy, the likes of which are usually in abundance come August. The best course of action would be for the owner to dismiss Bowden in October and hire a new GM by Thanksgiving in time for the free agency period.

Frank's Future

Another question that has been debated over the past day or so in the Natosphere has been Frank Robinson's future in Washington once the owner comes in. As with Bowden, I fully expect Frank to be dozing in the dugout as usual at the end of the 2006 season. That said, I would be sad to see him go and I'm not so certain that it would be in the best interests of the franchise.

Like it or not, the Nationals have a long way to go if they want to shed their image as the place that white suburbanites go to entertain themselves. I'm not saying that the team does not have a diverse fanbase (and it does), but baseball in general is seen by many as a white man's entertainment. That race is a factor to be considered by the Nationals should have become apparent to everyone during the stadium debate. I guarantee that very few people in Washington's African-American community have forgotten that Clark Griffith had no black players on the Senators even after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947. Despite steady gentrification (a nice way to say that the poor, generally African-American, community is being pushed out), Washington continues to be a majority black city. There is also a growing Hispanic community and the nation's capital is home to people from virtually every country on the planet. The team should be looking to capitalize on that diverse fanbase with more than just free tickets for inner-city youths. I do hope that the planned-for youth baseball complex helps to develop a new generation of little leaguers (and beyond) in D.C. The Nationals should make this complex a central part of their promotional strategy.

This is all a long way of saying that the team should consider the image that firing an African-American icon like Frank Robinson would project in this city. Some of my more conservative readers might think I'm suggesting that the best interests of the team should be set aside to avoid offending Washingtonians of color. I'm not. If a Joe Torre or Bobby Cox were to ask for the job tomorrow, I would have no reservations giving Frank the heave-ho. What I'm suggesting is that Frank's unique status as an African-American Hall of Famer managing a team located in the District is a quality that he brings to the job and should be taken in to account when discussing what is in the best interests of the franchise as a whole.

With the team now firmly established is the District for the forseeable future, it's time for the club to reach out to all its fans. The Nationals are uniquely placed to make baseball relevant again for a generation of young Washingtonians, especially African-Americans, who have been gravitating towards basketball and football and away from the nation's pastime. African-Americans and baseball have deep roots in Washington. I hope that the Nationals and the new ownership will remember that as we go forward.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 12:53 PM 2 comments

Thursday, March 09, 2006

 

Don't Call It A Comeback...

So I've been out of the blogging loop now for most of the past four weeks and much has happened in Nats land. I won't recap everything here, but suffice to say that Spring Training is off to a torrid start, the Soriano saga continues to fester, and Brian Lawrence is out for most of the season. And you know what? This has one of the best weeks for me, baseball-wise, in recent memory. The stadium deal is FINALLY done. Does anything else really matter? If the Nats lose 100 games this season, it won't erase the smile that's on my face today knowing that this team will be MY team for the forseeable future.

So, in the spirit of unbridled optimism, let's look into the future of what lies in store as our beloved Nationals strive to ensure at least a mediocre start to the season...

Bowden Threatens "Major Cuts" Involving "Drastic Numbers"

Both the Post and the Times are today reporting the following statement from Jim Bowden, in response to sloppy play in Spring Training:
"There's going to be major cuts in the next 48 hours, dramatic numbers," Bowden said. "We'll start to get serious here. I mean, you've got to get people opportunities and at-bats and innings and try to do what you can that way. But it's got to end because we don't want to be embarrassed anymore. It's time to step it up to the next gear."
Is this a case of JimBo and Frank just blustering in response to "embarassing" play (especially that 22-12 clunker versus the Marlins on Tuesday) or should we be expecting something big to happen today?

Granted, due to the WBC, guys that would never have a shot in Spring Training games are getting at-bats. Still, one has to wonder. My guess is that some of the NRI pitchers will get let go and a bunch of rookies will get sent back to the minors. Looking at the ST stats so far, some of the underachievers that I could see getting let go include Brendan Harris (3 for 16) or Daryle Ward (3 for 13, .267 OBP). Mental fielding mistakes have abounded over the past week as well, with Zimmerman and Byrd as the two biggest culprits. Of the two only Byrd and his .238 average through 21 ABs should worry about getting the axe, IMO.

On the bright side, Watson, Church, and Zimmerman are both excelling with the bat. Watson seems to avoided Endy-itis so far, putting up a stellar .353-.450-.412 line over 17 ABs at is making a strong case for the lead-off slot. Church's batting eye has been excellent, leading to a .294-.429(!)-.471(!!) line in 17 ABs. Zimm is showing more power than I thought he had, slugging at a .619 clip, to go along with a decent .286 AVG and .348 OBP over 21 ABs. Granted, there's still a lot of Spring Traing games to go and the level of opposition is not nearly Major League at this point, but the signs are there that the youngsters could be improving.

On the Trading Block

(Note: Some of this info is a little old, since I originally started this draft post a week or so ago, so bear with me.)

The Soriano trade rumors continue to bubble while the Disgruntled One plays for his native Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. The latest rumor(really, a rehashing of old rumors) comes out of the White Plains, NY-based Journal News:
Soriano unhappy: If the Nationals decide to move the disgruntled Alfonso Soriano, the Mets are expected to be a player. Randolph has a history with the talented Soriano from their days together with the Yankees, and the Nationals are looking for an outfielder, a position at which the Mets have a surplus. The acquisition of Xavier Nady in the offseason may make Victor Diaz expendable. The Nationals also have reportedly talked to the Red Sox about a package that would include pitcher Bronson Arroyo. Soriano said he won't play the outfield for Washington and is currently playing second base for the Dominican Republic in the WBC.
I first saw this info a few days ago on the great MLBTradeRumors.com blog which posted a rumor of a Xavier Nady, John Maine, Jeff Keppinger for Soriano, Bray, Bergmann deal. I tend to discount these deals because they look too much like someone simply played a "3 + 3" game with the rosters to see what fit. Yesterday, the same blog called the rumor "debunked," so I won't go into any detail as to why I don't like that deal.

With Lawrence likely done for the season, JimBo has been redoubling his efforts to acquire another pitcher to give depth to the rotation behind Livan and Patterson. Foremost among these efforts appear to be a renewed effort to snag one of the extra RH arms that the Red Sox are dangling -- Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement -- in exchange for either Ryan Church or Nick Johnson. You may recall that JimBo gave us all a big chuckle a few weeks back when it came to light that he'd offered Soriano to the Sox in an oh-so-equitable offer for Josh Beckett. The Sox, of course, laughed in his face. This doesn't give me a lot of hope that this will actually happen. What's more, I don't really see any place for either guy on the Sox's roster aside from Church perhaps serving as a #4 OF.

Of the two pitchers, I'd rather have Arroyo. Despite the fact that he took a step back last year, he's cheaper, 3 years younger, and his GB/FB ratio is better suited to RFK than Clement. Like I said though, JimBo would have to get pretty nifty with the trading to make this work. A poster at BallParkGuys had an interesting thought, on this. Assuming Nick the Stick went to Beantown, could Vidro slide over to 1B, thus alleviating the Soriano situation while at the same time putting less strain Vidro's gimpy knee? Not a bad idea, though I seem to remember Vidro expressing reluctance to play anywhere but 2B. Seeing as how Johnson is a free agent after this season, it would make sense that he'd be the guy to look to deal before cutting Church loose.

In other trading news, JimBo continues to attempt to stoke the fire for a Wily Mo Pena trade. I doubt this is going to happen, since the Reds will want pitching, pitching, and more pitching (which we don't have).

That's all for today, folks. Thanks for sticking with me through the no-posting dry spell. I'll try to get back in the swing of things over the next few days.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 11:15 AM 3 comments

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