Tuesday, December 20, 2005
Holiday Blogging Schedule
Sorry for lack of posts, everyone. I'm on vacation through the end of the year, so I've been spending QT with the family instead of keeping up on the Nats. I'll try to comment on some recent developments, but will probably not be doing the daily posting thing until after the New Year.
Thursday, December 15, 2005
Requiem for a Dream
Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday, everyone. Duty (lotsa work and a sick daughter) called.
So I turned on Sportscenter yesterday morning for my usual coffee, ironing, and highlights routine and what to my wondering eyes should appear but news that my TWO favorite offseason targets were off the market. Milton Bradley AND an infielder got dealt to the A's for a top prospect and the White Sox won the Javier Vazquez sweepstakes.
Excuse me while I rant Yosemite Sam-style...
Consarn it, rassin'-frassin', racka-frackin'!!
OK, I feel (a bit) better now.
Targetting Bradley shows why Billy Beane is as smart as he is. Getting Bradley AND and a replacement-level infielder in Antonio Perez (104 OPS+ in 2005) for a top prospect is f'ing brilliant. Andre Either WAS Texas League Player of the Year in 2005, but let's not forget that the Texas League is up there in Pacific Coast League territory as far as inflating hitter's stats, from what I hear. Not to mention that the A's farm system is stocked and can easily replace him. Methinks Beane made out like a bandit on this one, yet again. The Nats couldn't beat that offer? Come on!
Losing Vazquez should have come as no surprise after being so close to a deal only to see it fall through. As I noted Tuesday, there was apparently a Church/Carroll/minor leaguer for Vazquez deal on the table, but JimBo rightfully balked at including Balester or Hinckley as said minor leaguer. Nothing drives away a potential mate as quickly as being on the verge of consummating the deal only to back off at the last minute. Considering the difficult position Vazquez put the D'backs in, I think they got good value in El Duque, Vizcaino, and Chris Young.
So now the Nats are left with the less appealing prospect of third-tier arms like Brett Tomko, Shawn Estes, and Pedro Astacio, as MLB.com noted yesterday. Since we're looking at around $6-7M of cash left to spend, I doubt that we are in the running for Millwood, Washburn, or Weaver, unless they would somehow agree to backloaded deals or we could find a taker for Vidro to free up the extra cash that it would take to make competitive offers (more on this later).
I've written before that I think Tomko is an attractive, low-priced arm (worth about 2 years/$6.5M IMO), so there's no need to delve further in to that particular kettle of fish. However, I haven't given Estes or Astacio much thought. Hmmmmm....
About the best thing Estes has going for him is that he's left-handed and cheap ($2.5M in 2005).Now for the bad news: He's failed to post an above-average ERA+ in 8 out of 11 big league seasons, with none of the 3 average or better seasons coming in the last 3 years. To add to the pain, he is coming off a stress fracture in his right ankle that shortened his season considerably. It's worth noting that he was showing some promise prior to the injury, running up a 6-5 record with a 3.75 ERA and pitching into the sixth inning in all 15 games before getting hurt. Bottom line: Should we miss out on one of the top 3 arms remaining and whiff on Tomko, Estes could probably play a decidedly mediocre role towards the back of the rotation. 1 year/$2.5M and cross your fingers that St. Claire can sprinkle some more Loaiza fairy dust on the leftie.
Pedro Astacio is again looking for someone to take a gamble on his gimpy shoulder. The RHP is definitely on the downside of his career (some would say he was never on the upside), having failed to throw more than 190 innings in any year since 2002. For the cock-eyed optimists out there there is a small glimmer of hope in the fact that he took advantage of a home field in San Diego that is similar to RFK in pitcher-friendliness to post a 4-2, 3.17 ERA/1.34 WHIP in 10 starts (including the division clinching game) after he was released by Texas and subsequently signed by the Pads. Bottom line: As with Estes, the best thing Astacio has going for him is that he's cheap ($800K salary last year). I think his progress with the Pads is more sizzle than steak and the possiblity of absolute implosion makes me very wary of investing any kind of money in him. Inviting him to spring training with the possiblity of a 1 year/$800K-$1M deal is as far as I would go.
Taking a step back a few days, I have to admit that I've been swayed a bit by the comments my fellow Nats bloggers left on Monday's "Vidro to the Cubbies?" post as well as discussions I've had with fellow BPG gadfly Ulrath. While I'm still wary of dealing Vidro for Patterson straight up, I can see the logic in such a deal if it enabled us to sign Jeff Weaver or Kevin Millwood. There is a chicken and egg problem with such a move, of course. You more than likely can't sign Weaver or Millwood unless you free up cash by moving Vidro. But you probably don't want to move Vidro unless you can be sure of signing one of the arms. Considering the wariness that free agents have for coming to DC with the unsettled ownership situation, I would think that the Nats would need to send an above-market rate offer to either pitcher to sign them. In a seller's market for pitching, 4 years/$40M won't cut it for either guy, though. Anything more than that is likely overpaying them IMHO, however.
Quite the conundrum.
We'll just have to wait and see what JimBo can pull out of hisarse bag of tricks.
So I turned on Sportscenter yesterday morning for my usual coffee, ironing, and highlights routine and what to my wondering eyes should appear but news that my TWO favorite offseason targets were off the market. Milton Bradley AND an infielder got dealt to the A's for a top prospect and the White Sox won the Javier Vazquez sweepstakes.
Excuse me while I rant Yosemite Sam-style...
Consarn it, rassin'-frassin', racka-frackin'!!
OK, I feel (a bit) better now.
Targetting Bradley shows why Billy Beane is as smart as he is. Getting Bradley AND and a replacement-level infielder in Antonio Perez (104 OPS+ in 2005) for a top prospect is f'ing brilliant. Andre Either WAS Texas League Player of the Year in 2005, but let's not forget that the Texas League is up there in Pacific Coast League territory as far as inflating hitter's stats, from what I hear. Not to mention that the A's farm system is stocked and can easily replace him. Methinks Beane made out like a bandit on this one, yet again. The Nats couldn't beat that offer? Come on!
Losing Vazquez should have come as no surprise after being so close to a deal only to see it fall through. As I noted Tuesday, there was apparently a Church/Carroll/minor leaguer for Vazquez deal on the table, but JimBo rightfully balked at including Balester or Hinckley as said minor leaguer. Nothing drives away a potential mate as quickly as being on the verge of consummating the deal only to back off at the last minute. Considering the difficult position Vazquez put the D'backs in, I think they got good value in El Duque, Vizcaino, and Chris Young.
So now the Nats are left with the less appealing prospect of third-tier arms like Brett Tomko, Shawn Estes, and Pedro Astacio, as MLB.com noted yesterday. Since we're looking at around $6-7M of cash left to spend, I doubt that we are in the running for Millwood, Washburn, or Weaver, unless they would somehow agree to backloaded deals or we could find a taker for Vidro to free up the extra cash that it would take to make competitive offers (more on this later).
I've written before that I think Tomko is an attractive, low-priced arm (worth about 2 years/$6.5M IMO), so there's no need to delve further in to that particular kettle of fish. However, I haven't given Estes or Astacio much thought. Hmmmmm....
About the best thing Estes has going for him is that he's left-handed and cheap ($2.5M in 2005).Now for the bad news: He's failed to post an above-average ERA+ in 8 out of 11 big league seasons, with none of the 3 average or better seasons coming in the last 3 years. To add to the pain, he is coming off a stress fracture in his right ankle that shortened his season considerably. It's worth noting that he was showing some promise prior to the injury, running up a 6-5 record with a 3.75 ERA and pitching into the sixth inning in all 15 games before getting hurt. Bottom line: Should we miss out on one of the top 3 arms remaining and whiff on Tomko, Estes could probably play a decidedly mediocre role towards the back of the rotation. 1 year/$2.5M and cross your fingers that St. Claire can sprinkle some more Loaiza fairy dust on the leftie.
Pedro Astacio is again looking for someone to take a gamble on his gimpy shoulder. The RHP is definitely on the downside of his career (some would say he was never on the upside), having failed to throw more than 190 innings in any year since 2002. For the cock-eyed optimists out there there is a small glimmer of hope in the fact that he took advantage of a home field in San Diego that is similar to RFK in pitcher-friendliness to post a 4-2, 3.17 ERA/1.34 WHIP in 10 starts (including the division clinching game) after he was released by Texas and subsequently signed by the Pads. Bottom line: As with Estes, the best thing Astacio has going for him is that he's cheap ($800K salary last year). I think his progress with the Pads is more sizzle than steak and the possiblity of absolute implosion makes me very wary of investing any kind of money in him. Inviting him to spring training with the possiblity of a 1 year/$800K-$1M deal is as far as I would go.
Taking a step back a few days, I have to admit that I've been swayed a bit by the comments my fellow Nats bloggers left on Monday's "Vidro to the Cubbies?" post as well as discussions I've had with fellow BPG gadfly Ulrath. While I'm still wary of dealing Vidro for Patterson straight up, I can see the logic in such a deal if it enabled us to sign Jeff Weaver or Kevin Millwood. There is a chicken and egg problem with such a move, of course. You more than likely can't sign Weaver or Millwood unless you free up cash by moving Vidro. But you probably don't want to move Vidro unless you can be sure of signing one of the arms. Considering the wariness that free agents have for coming to DC with the unsettled ownership situation, I would think that the Nats would need to send an above-market rate offer to either pitcher to sign them. In a seller's market for pitching, 4 years/$40M won't cut it for either guy, though. Anything more than that is likely overpaying them IMHO, however.
Quite the conundrum.
We'll just have to wait and see what JimBo can pull out of his
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Suck on It and Fick Off
Breaking news has the Nationals signing Joey Eischen and Robert Fick to one-year deals, finanical terms TBA. For reference, Fick made $316K with the Padres in 2005 and $800K with the D-Rays in 2004. I would expect that he was signed to something less that $1M. I would also suspect that Eischen will make around $1.5M.
JimBo has done something more than breath. Cue the haters.
While financial details need to be determined to find out the impact of the two signings, on their face these are fairly solid additions to the team. With Fick, Damian Jackson, and Marlon Anderson we have the beginnings of a decent bench. All three players can fill in at any number of infield and outfield positions. Fellow BPG'er Ulrath also sagely pointed out that they will make appealing trade chips at the deadline. Of course, the howls of protest that Carroll, Harris, and Short would serve better as bench players is certain to begin shortly. I don't see the fascination with those three guys, and the statistics bear this out:
2005 VORP/WARP1
Brendan Harris: 1.9/.3
Jamey Carroll: -2.3/1.5
Rick Short: 5.2/.5
Total: 4.8/2.3
Marlon Anderson: 6.7/1.4
Damian Jackson: 9.1/2.1
Robert Fick: 6.4/1.3
Total: 22.2/4.8
(Note: VORP does not take in to account defense. WARP-1 does, among other factors.)
It's fairly obvious to me that Bowden has improved the bench substantially (17.4 runs, 2.5 wins) with these deals. Of course, these stats don't take into account the higher payroll with the new bench versus the old bench, so whether the increased offensive output is worth the price is up for debate. IMHO, they are worth it thanks to the offensive upgrade and the positional versatility the three new guys bring.
Resigning Eischen was a no-brainer considering his admirable performance in 2005. Not to mention that we would be insane to go into the regular season without a reliable LHP in the 'pen. Then there are the quotes. "Suck on it." Priceless. If we did in fact get him at less that $1.5M it would be a bargain considering the stupid money being thrown at relievers this offseason.
In other news, Bowden today signed 4warm bodies catchers to minor league contracts. Of course these guys have names, namely Wiki Gonzalez, Mike DiFelice, Alberto Castillo and Brandon Harper. Of most interest to me is that this points to a Spring Training competition for the backup catcher job. This is not a bad move, IMO, especially if it saves money by not trying to sign John Flaherty or some other equally mediocre backup catcher with more name recognition. None of these guys excite me in the least, but it will at least give us another story to follow in Viera this spring.
The Javier Vazquez trade rumors continue to percolate. MLB4U.com has an interesting nugget about what was offered by JimBo in the deal:
NatoScan: Capitol Punishment today offers the third part of his analysis of Alfonso Soriano and gives his take on today's signings. Distinguished Senators again takes out his aggression on his favorite journalistic punching bag. Basil at Federal Baseball laments the loss of the apparently underappreciated Henry Mateo. Joining the chorus of Nats bloggers with infinitely more patience for the minutiae of the stadium financing discussion today: District of Baseball and Just a Nats Fan.
Speaking of the public hearing on the stadium, I've been paying attention to the live feed from the Council on and off today. Is it just me, or is Marion Barry wearing one of those counterfeit Nationals caps? Sure looks like it to me.
JimBo has done something more than breath. Cue the haters.
While financial details need to be determined to find out the impact of the two signings, on their face these are fairly solid additions to the team. With Fick, Damian Jackson, and Marlon Anderson we have the beginnings of a decent bench. All three players can fill in at any number of infield and outfield positions. Fellow BPG'er Ulrath also sagely pointed out that they will make appealing trade chips at the deadline. Of course, the howls of protest that Carroll, Harris, and Short would serve better as bench players is certain to begin shortly. I don't see the fascination with those three guys, and the statistics bear this out:
2005 VORP/WARP1
Brendan Harris: 1.9/.3
Jamey Carroll: -2.3/1.5
Rick Short: 5.2/.5
Total: 4.8/2.3
Marlon Anderson: 6.7/1.4
Damian Jackson: 9.1/2.1
Robert Fick: 6.4/1.3
Total: 22.2/4.8
(Note: VORP does not take in to account defense. WARP-1 does, among other factors.)
It's fairly obvious to me that Bowden has improved the bench substantially (17.4 runs, 2.5 wins) with these deals. Of course, these stats don't take into account the higher payroll with the new bench versus the old bench, so whether the increased offensive output is worth the price is up for debate. IMHO, they are worth it thanks to the offensive upgrade and the positional versatility the three new guys bring.
Resigning Eischen was a no-brainer considering his admirable performance in 2005. Not to mention that we would be insane to go into the regular season without a reliable LHP in the 'pen. Then there are the quotes. "Suck on it." Priceless. If we did in fact get him at less that $1.5M it would be a bargain considering the stupid money being thrown at relievers this offseason.
In other news, Bowden today signed 4
The Javier Vazquez trade rumors continue to percolate. MLB4U.com has an interesting nugget about what was offered by JimBo in the deal:
"..the Nats were close to acquiring him for Ryan Church, Jamey Carroll and a minor leaguer, but talks broke down when ARI asked for Mike Hinckley or Collin Balester..."I have written about my fandom of Vazquez previously. Church and Carroll for Vazquez would be a steal, considering Vazquez's potential to return to the 127 average ERA+ he put up with Montreal in 2000-03. While I'm not as averse as others to including minor league talent to improve the team, I'm glad JimBo balked at including one of our two top pitching prospects in that deal. Make it Bill Bray or one of the other lower-tier minor league arms and I could get behind it though. At the end of the day, we don't have a good enough minor league system currently to be overly protective of the farm. Better to trade away average-to-good prospects for MLB players with upside that we can then deal at the deadline for good-to-better prospects.
NatoScan: Capitol Punishment today offers the third part of his analysis of Alfonso Soriano and gives his take on today's signings. Distinguished Senators again takes out his aggression on his favorite journalistic punching bag. Basil at Federal Baseball laments the loss of the apparently underappreciated Henry Mateo. Joining the chorus of Nats bloggers with infinitely more patience for the minutiae of the stadium financing discussion today: District of Baseball and Just a Nats Fan.
Speaking of the public hearing on the stadium, I've been paying attention to the live feed from the Council on and off today. Is it just me, or is Marion Barry wearing one of those counterfeit Nationals caps? Sure looks like it to me.
Monday, December 12, 2005
Vidro to the Cubbies?
Barry Rozner's article over at the Chicago Daily Herald caught my eye this morning:
I'm more than willing to say sayonara to Vidro and his gimpy (some would say chronically bad) knees and play Soriano at 2B (21 errors be damned!). That said, I'd rather put up with Sori's bitching in LF and Vidro at 2B than take on either Patterson or Hairston in a one-for-one deal. As I've said before, I think that Patterson's bad batting habits are deeply ingrained and won't be easily remedied. That said, he is only 25, so there is a possibility that a change of scenery could do him well. His defense in CF would certainly be valuable as well. He's still not worth Vidro straight-up though.
Hairston regressed across the board in 2005, with lower AVG, OBP, and SLG than he posted with the O's, where he was starting to look very promising. Some would see an off year stemming from the move to the NL. I see the beginning of trend back to mediocrity. Pass.
The Cubs deep farm system has many appealing apples I'd like to pick (it's bad pun Monday!). I've discussed my affection for Ronny Cedeno before, so I won't elaborate on him. Suffice to say that I would dig the deal, even though he'd contribute to the second base pileup that Bowden has created. My other favorite MLB-ready Cubs youngster is LF Matt Murton (.333/.402/.545 in 99 ABs in '05 - click here for '06 projection). Then there is uber-prospect Felix Pie, but I suspect that he is untouchable. I'd be willing to take any of the three in a straight-up deal for Vidro since it would free up salary to make a run at either Washburn, Millwood, or Weaver (who would be my choice).
The only upside to a straight-up trade of Vidro for Patterson/Hairston would be the the plus of Patterson's defense and the salary it would free up to go after pitching.
Speaking of pitching, the word on the street is that the Nats are pursuing former SF RHP Brett Tomko. I wrote last month that I thought Tomko would be a decent bargain pitcher to pursue and my opinion hasn't changed. The Post correctly points out that Tomko has thrown 190+ innings in each of the past 4 years. What I haven't seen anyone point out though is that Tomko had a nice 3.78 ERA in 81 IP after the break last year. I'll take that kind of promise in the #3 slot, especially with Randy St. Claire's tutelage. Heck, considering the funny money being thrown at FA SP's this year (2 years, $16M for Kenny freaking Rogers?!?), I'd even be willing to give Tomko more money than I originally thought prudent. Let's say 2 years, $6.5M.
In the same WaPo article, Svrluga mentions that the Nats are going after Robert Fick. I'm a little confused by this. Barry S. says that he's being correctly looked at as a backup OF or 1B, which is all he's good for at this point in his career. Don't the Nats have too many of those as it is? If we sign him, would he be willing to go back to his old catcher position and back up Schneider too? I just don't see where he fits, unless there are some trades in the works involving some combination of Jamey Carroll, Tony Blanco, Junior Spivey, and or Rick Short that I'm not seeing.
Out in deepest, darkest Ohio, Hal McCoy seems to think that the Nats have pitching to deal for Wily Mo Pena. I assume he's thinking of Colin Ballester, Clint Everts, and Mike Hinckley. Pena is definitely a solid young bat, but I'm not sure if I'd want to part with with any of these arms to get him. Bill Bray or Daryl Thompson, yes, but one of the three top pitching prospects? No thanks. Speaking of Wily Mo, Distinguished Senators today has a pretty convincing analysis of why Pena would have been infinitely preferable to Soriano in a Wilkerson deal. Not sure that I agree with it, but it's definitely well thought out.
When you're done here, head on over to Capitol Punishment to read two more excellent analyses of what we can expect from Soriano (and why the park factor argument about Sori is overrated). For more fun with PhotoShop and a refutation of Soriano's latest "I ain't gonna change positions," comments, check out Beltway Boys today.
Excuse me while I squeal with glee. I don't see Vidro ever being 100% again, hence my desire to see him shipped out ASAP. There are any number of prospects in the Cubs organization that I'd be happy to part with Vidro for. Of course, the Cubs probably aren't thinking this. Instead, Rozner suggests two MUCH less appealing alternatives:If the Cubs can’t get their hands on Baltimore shortstop Miguel Tejada, there might be another talented middle infielder available out east.
While the Nationals have not publicly suggested that second baseman Jose Vidro is available, there is talk among baseball folks that Washington will have to consider moving Vidro now that Alfonso Soriano is in town and vowing never to switch to the outfield.
And like Tejada, Vidro would be an excellent fit with the Cubs.
In fact, some believe that if Vidro is healthy — which he was not the last two years — he’s just as good for the Cubs, if not an even better fit than Tejada.
For Vidro, the Cubs probably could get away with giving the Nats only Corey Patterson or Jerry Hairston since the Nats are looking for an outfielder/leadoff man.Yuck.
I'm more than willing to say sayonara to Vidro and his gimpy (some would say chronically bad) knees and play Soriano at 2B (21 errors be damned!). That said, I'd rather put up with Sori's bitching in LF and Vidro at 2B than take on either Patterson or Hairston in a one-for-one deal. As I've said before, I think that Patterson's bad batting habits are deeply ingrained and won't be easily remedied. That said, he is only 25, so there is a possibility that a change of scenery could do him well. His defense in CF would certainly be valuable as well. He's still not worth Vidro straight-up though.
Hairston regressed across the board in 2005, with lower AVG, OBP, and SLG than he posted with the O's, where he was starting to look very promising. Some would see an off year stemming from the move to the NL. I see the beginning of trend back to mediocrity. Pass.
The Cubs deep farm system has many appealing apples I'd like to pick (it's bad pun Monday!). I've discussed my affection for Ronny Cedeno before, so I won't elaborate on him. Suffice to say that I would dig the deal, even though he'd contribute to the second base pileup that Bowden has created. My other favorite MLB-ready Cubs youngster is LF Matt Murton (.333/.402/.545 in 99 ABs in '05 - click here for '06 projection). Then there is uber-prospect Felix Pie, but I suspect that he is untouchable. I'd be willing to take any of the three in a straight-up deal for Vidro since it would free up salary to make a run at either Washburn, Millwood, or Weaver (who would be my choice).
The only upside to a straight-up trade of Vidro for Patterson/Hairston would be the the plus of Patterson's defense and the salary it would free up to go after pitching.
Speaking of pitching, the word on the street is that the Nats are pursuing former SF RHP Brett Tomko. I wrote last month that I thought Tomko would be a decent bargain pitcher to pursue and my opinion hasn't changed. The Post correctly points out that Tomko has thrown 190+ innings in each of the past 4 years. What I haven't seen anyone point out though is that Tomko had a nice 3.78 ERA in 81 IP after the break last year. I'll take that kind of promise in the #3 slot, especially with Randy St. Claire's tutelage. Heck, considering the funny money being thrown at FA SP's this year (2 years, $16M for Kenny freaking Rogers?!?), I'd even be willing to give Tomko more money than I originally thought prudent. Let's say 2 years, $6.5M.
In the same WaPo article, Svrluga mentions that the Nats are going after Robert Fick. I'm a little confused by this. Barry S. says that he's being correctly looked at as a backup OF or 1B, which is all he's good for at this point in his career. Don't the Nats have too many of those as it is? If we sign him, would he be willing to go back to his old catcher position and back up Schneider too? I just don't see where he fits, unless there are some trades in the works involving some combination of Jamey Carroll, Tony Blanco, Junior Spivey, and or Rick Short that I'm not seeing.
Out in deepest, darkest Ohio, Hal McCoy seems to think that the Nats have pitching to deal for Wily Mo Pena. I assume he's thinking of Colin Ballester, Clint Everts, and Mike Hinckley. Pena is definitely a solid young bat, but I'm not sure if I'd want to part with with any of these arms to get him. Bill Bray or Daryl Thompson, yes, but one of the three top pitching prospects? No thanks. Speaking of Wily Mo, Distinguished Senators today has a pretty convincing analysis of why Pena would have been infinitely preferable to Soriano in a Wilkerson deal. Not sure that I agree with it, but it's definitely well thought out.
When you're done here, head on over to Capitol Punishment to read two more excellent analyses of what we can expect from Soriano (and why the park factor argument about Sori is overrated). For more fun with PhotoShop and a refutation of Soriano's latest "I ain't gonna change positions," comments, check out Beltway Boys today.
Friday, December 09, 2005
What To Do With Vidro?
The big news in NatsLand this morning is that newly-acquired 2B Alfonso Soriano is strenuously objecting to being moved to left field.
That said, I think Alphie will be starting at 2B for the Nationals on Opening Day because Bowden will find a way to move Jose Vidro (and change perhaps) for pitching and/or a true lead-off hitter. This won't be the easiest of moves considering Vidro's continuing injury history (I wouldn't be at all surprised if the knee problems are chronic) and his large contract. I still have faith in Bowden though. This is the guy that moved Vinny Castilla's contract for a useful SP, after all.
With that, let's look at who needs a 2B (based on what MLB4u.com says) and what if anything the Nats could stand to gain from a trade:
Quick NatScan: Chris over at Capitol Punishment puts forward some great argument about why Soriano will eventually come to terms with doing as he's told. Ryan at Distinguished Senators, who bashed the Soriano trade admirably yesterday, today continues to take out his rage over the deal, ripping DCist's favorable review.
"I'm going to play second base," Soriano told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram Thursday. "I don't think they want me to play the outfield. I think that if they traded for me, it's to play second base. Obviously I have the control. Of course I'm not going to play the outfield."Personally, I think he's much better suited to the OF considering he was tops in the majors in errors among 2B's who played 100 games or more at the position. Of course, I can also see his case from his point of view. A potential 30-30 2B (especially one entering his contract year) has significantly more $$cha-ching$$ potential than a 30-30 OF. In any case, we don't need to deal with the headache of Soriano complaining about his position.
That said, I think Alphie will be starting at 2B for the Nationals on Opening Day because Bowden will find a way to move Jose Vidro (and change perhaps) for pitching and/or a true lead-off hitter. This won't be the easiest of moves considering Vidro's continuing injury history (I wouldn't be at all surprised if the knee problems are chronic) and his large contract. I still have faith in Bowden though. This is the guy that moved Vinny Castilla's contract for a useful SP, after all.
With that, let's look at who needs a 2B (based on what MLB4u.com says) and what if anything the Nats could stand to gain from a trade:
- Marlins - Since the Fish are looking for a cheap 2B and will not be willing to take on salary, I don't see anything happening here.
- Royals - The Royals are actively shopping for a 2B and have been linked to any number of them, including Jamey Carroll. Considering the Benson to KC rumors, they may be willing to take on a bit of salary. Vidro for David DeJesus, anyone? It would certainly fill the need for an above-average CF and lead-off hitter while clearing salary to go after a starting pitcher. I doubt that the Royals go for it, though stranger things have happened.
- Cardinals - The Cards did not offer Mark Grudzielanek arbitration, leaving them with the unappealing prospect of a Hector Luna/Abraham Nunez 2B platoon. I don't know if they'd be willing to take on Vidro's $7M salary though, as published reports suggest that they are only allocating $2M to the position. The Cards have offered packages including Jeff Suppan or Jason Marquis to the D'Backs for Vazquez. I'm no fan of Suppan, but I'd certainly look favorably on a Vidro-for-Marquis deal. I've been a fan of Marquis since his Atlanta days (Full disclosure: I grew up in Richmond, VA rooting for the AAA R-Braves, so I'm an ex-Tomahawk Chopper). Again, the deal would free up some salary to go after a lead-off bat.
Quick NatScan: Chris over at Capitol Punishment puts forward some great argument about why Soriano will eventually come to terms with doing as he's told. Ryan at Distinguished Senators, who bashed the Soriano trade admirably yesterday, today continues to take out his rage over the deal, ripping DCist's favorable review.
Thursday, December 08, 2005
So Long Wilk. Hellooooo Alphie!
So I've have a long night to think about the MEGA-DEAL. I woke up this morning still liking the deal, but with a bit more distance, I can see the issues that others have had with it.
There are a number of arguments that I've seen floating around about why this deal sucks big donkey ballz, most of them involving Soriano's high K/low OBP numbers. Yes, Wilk probably has a better batting eye than Soriano. That said, when looking at the overall package, Soriano fits in better with one of our stated need (a middle-of-the-order power bat). Most of the Soriano/Bowden haters out there have referenced 2005 stats almost exclusively and OBP in particular. OBP is but one stat, however, and it's not a great idea to rely on one year's stats too much. It's much better to look at a 3-year trend to gauge how a player is likely to perform:
Soriano vs. Wilkerson (2003-05 average)
Losing Sledge and Gallaraga (the likely PTBNL) are not that big a deal, IMO. Sledge is coming off a major injury and was an aging "prospect" at any rate. Gallaraga would not have cracked the top 20 of any organization that had a halfway decent farm system. Not a huge loss.
My biggest concern about this deal is that Soriano is likely going to eat up close to $10 million of our play money after arbitration. This could put a serious damper on efforts to sign a FA pitcher or take on a decent pitcher's salary in trade. Bringing back Tony Armas should be an option of extreme last resort, IMO.
In short, yes, we gave up a lot to get Soriano, but I think that once all of the wheeling and dealing is done, this will turn out to be a good deal. If we can move Vidro for a pitcher and put Soriano at 2B, I'd be overjoyed. Of course, that would likely mean losing Church and we'd be right back where we started with a glaring hole or two in the outfield, making signing or trades for OF's like Lofton, Bradley, or Jacque Jones that much more urgent.
What's more, Soriano will be motivated to play for a big contract in 2006. If he can give us good value in 2006 that we can move for good prospects at the deadline, I will consider this trade to be a big success.
There are a number of arguments that I've seen floating around about why this deal sucks big donkey ballz, most of them involving Soriano's high K/low OBP numbers. Yes, Wilk probably has a better batting eye than Soriano. That said, when looking at the overall package, Soriano fits in better with one of our stated need (a middle-of-the-order power bat). Most of the Soriano/Bowden haters out there have referenced 2005 stats almost exclusively and OBP in particular. OBP is but one stat, however, and it's not a great idea to rely on one year's stats too much. It's much better to look at a 3-year trend to gauge how a player is likely to perform:
Soriano vs. Wilkerson (2003-05 average)
- OPS: .832 vs. .824 - Not a huge difference, but a noticeable one, somewhat mitigating the OBP differential.
- Value Over Replacement Player (VORP): 52.5 vs. 32 - Soriano clearly ahead, though VORP does not take into account defense, which Soriano was clearly bad at (at least at 2B).
- Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP): 5.0 vs. 5.7 - Wilkie wins out here by just over 1/2 a win.
- Equivalent Average (EqA- A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching.): .273 vs .280 - Wilk wins here too.
Losing Sledge and Gallaraga (the likely PTBNL) are not that big a deal, IMO. Sledge is coming off a major injury and was an aging "prospect" at any rate. Gallaraga would not have cracked the top 20 of any organization that had a halfway decent farm system. Not a huge loss.
My biggest concern about this deal is that Soriano is likely going to eat up close to $10 million of our play money after arbitration. This could put a serious damper on efforts to sign a FA pitcher or take on a decent pitcher's salary in trade. Bringing back Tony Armas should be an option of extreme last resort, IMO.
In short, yes, we gave up a lot to get Soriano, but I think that once all of the wheeling and dealing is done, this will turn out to be a good deal. If we can move Vidro for a pitcher and put Soriano at 2B, I'd be overjoyed. Of course, that would likely mean losing Church and we'd be right back where we started with a glaring hole or two in the outfield, making signing or trades for OF's like Lofton, Bradley, or Jacque Jones that much more urgent.
What's more, Soriano will be motivated to play for a big contract in 2006. If he can give us good value in 2006 that we can move for good prospects at the deadline, I will consider this trade to be a big success.
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Holy Crap!
ESPN: Wilkerson, Sledge, and PTBNL to the Rangers for Soriano
At first blush, I like the deal. We finally get a legit power bat in the heart of the order. The OBP dropoff from Wilk will hurt, but getting a true leadoff man (Lofton?) could offset that somewhat. I just hope that the salary difference between the two of them doesn't hamper us too much in the search for a pitcher. I'll have MUCH more to say on this tomorrow.
At first blush, I like the deal. We finally get a legit power bat in the heart of the order. The OBP dropoff from Wilk will hurt, but getting a true leadoff man (Lofton?) could offset that somewhat. I just hope that the salary difference between the two of them doesn't hamper us too much in the search for a pitcher. I'll have MUCH more to say on this tomorrow.
Hide Your Cameramen...
The rumors and innuendos are coming fast and furious out of the Winter Meetings so far. Curiously, the only significant Nationals names mentioned so far have been Wilkerson and Termel Sledge. I sure hope that JimBo doesn't come out of the deal-fest with nothing to show for the trip but a bad case of BBQ-heartburn.
I'm glad to hear that the Termel Sledge for Dave Roberts rumors have died down. I agree that Sledge's stock as a prospect has dimmed considerably, but I just don't see Roberts providing anything more than a token improvement for the team, both with the bat and defensively while costing more money and making the team older. Farid over at Beltway Boys disagrees, so feel free to read what he has to say and make your own decision.
Bill Ladson and Adam McCalvy on the MLB sites are reporting that the Nats are offering Kevin Millwood and Jarrod Washburn 4 years/$40 million to come to DC -- essentially the same offer made to Burnett. I like Millwood and think that that offer is very fair. I'm not so sure about Washburn, though both pitchers accounted for 15 Win Shares (my stat du jour) in 2005 and both have career ERA+'s of 114. What worries me with Washburn is that the nice 3.20 ERA in 2005 masks a big dip in K/9 and K/BB versus 2003 and 2004. While Millwood's K/9 went down in 2005, his K/BB took a big jump which augurs well for continued success. Getting a leftie into the rotation would be nice too, but I don't consider it to be a big priority. Jeff Weaver's still at the top of my pitcher wish list, but Millwood is running a close second.
Unfortunately, the ownership snafu will likely keep us out of the running for either arm, just as it did with Burnett, as he made abundantly clear in today's WaPo :
Which leads up to the type of deal that the Nats are yet again forced to take seriously thanks to the lack of ownership, i.e. picking up tarnished names off the scrapheap and trying to shine them up enough so that we can get someone's draft pick the following season. Someone like...
Kenny Rogers.
Yes, THAT Kenny Rogers.
Rogers could -- and the operative word is "could" -- help the Nats this season. He actually had more win shares (18) in 2005 than either Millwood or Washburn, despite his ugly 2nd half swoon (4.72 ERA after the break). If I were in Rogers' shoes, I'd be looking for a one-year deal for the same $3.5M he made in 2005. Of course, he'd have to promise JimBo that he'd be a good boy, but if he could put up career average numbers in DC he could put himself nicely in line for one more payday with someone else before he calls it a career. The danger on the Nats side is that as a control pitcher, his advancing age could send him off a Jamie Moyer-esque cliff sooner rather than later. This is a distinct possiblity, btw, considering that his 2005 K/9 (4.01) was a career low and his K/BB (1.64) was the worst it's been since 1998. If I were GM, I would point at those factors, along with the cameraman incident as reason to try and sign the 41 year-old at a discount, say 1 year/$2.5M with good behavior incentives.
Bowden could then turn around and spend the savings on a Kenny Lofton or Jacque Jones-type bat. Heck, with the money saved they could make one of those signing and STILL have money left over to offer arbitration to Wilkerson. A Guillen-Jones/Lofton-Wilk outfield would actually be somewhat respectable, even.
I'm glad to hear that the Termel Sledge for Dave Roberts rumors have died down. I agree that Sledge's stock as a prospect has dimmed considerably, but I just don't see Roberts providing anything more than a token improvement for the team, both with the bat and defensively while costing more money and making the team older. Farid over at Beltway Boys disagrees, so feel free to read what he has to say and make your own decision.
Bill Ladson and Adam McCalvy on the MLB sites are reporting that the Nats are offering Kevin Millwood and Jarrod Washburn 4 years/$40 million to come to DC -- essentially the same offer made to Burnett. I like Millwood and think that that offer is very fair. I'm not so sure about Washburn, though both pitchers accounted for 15 Win Shares (my stat du jour) in 2005 and both have career ERA+'s of 114. What worries me with Washburn is that the nice 3.20 ERA in 2005 masks a big dip in K/9 and K/BB versus 2003 and 2004. While Millwood's K/9 went down in 2005, his K/BB took a big jump which augurs well for continued success. Getting a leftie into the rotation would be nice too, but I don't consider it to be a big priority. Jeff Weaver's still at the top of my pitcher wish list, but Millwood is running a close second.
Unfortunately, the ownership snafu will likely keep us out of the running for either arm, just as it did with Burnett, as he made abundantly clear in today's WaPo :
"The ownership deal was a big issue with Darek and I," Burnett said after the Blue Jays announced his five-year, $55 million deal. "They don't have an owner or a stadium in place."Insert long, curse-filled rant about the evils of MLB here. Grrrrr.....
Which leads up to the type of deal that the Nats are yet again forced to take seriously thanks to the lack of ownership, i.e. picking up tarnished names off the scrapheap and trying to shine them up enough so that we can get someone's draft pick the following season. Someone like...
Kenny Rogers.
Yes, THAT Kenny Rogers.
Rogers could -- and the operative word is "could" -- help the Nats this season. He actually had more win shares (18) in 2005 than either Millwood or Washburn, despite his ugly 2nd half swoon (4.72 ERA after the break). If I were in Rogers' shoes, I'd be looking for a one-year deal for the same $3.5M he made in 2005. Of course, he'd have to promise JimBo that he'd be a good boy, but if he could put up career average numbers in DC he could put himself nicely in line for one more payday with someone else before he calls it a career. The danger on the Nats side is that as a control pitcher, his advancing age could send him off a Jamie Moyer-esque cliff sooner rather than later. This is a distinct possiblity, btw, considering that his 2005 K/9 (4.01) was a career low and his K/BB (1.64) was the worst it's been since 1998. If I were GM, I would point at those factors, along with the cameraman incident as reason to try and sign the 41 year-old at a discount, say 1 year/$2.5M with good behavior incentives.
Bowden could then turn around and spend the savings on a Kenny Lofton or Jacque Jones-type bat. Heck, with the money saved they could make one of those signing and STILL have money left over to offer arbitration to Wilkerson. A Guillen-Jones/Lofton-Wilk outfield would actually be somewhat respectable, even.
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
$60M Reasons To Be Happy
It was with much joy that I read the following information this morning:
By way of an update on the Javier Vazquez rumors, it appears that the likely Burnett-less Cards and the Indians are getting involved. Considering Vazquez's stated desire to move to a city closer to Puerto Rico, I wonder if Bowden has shown him the flight schedules:
Rob Neyer yesterday wrote a neat little column (sorry, ESPN Insiders only) listing some bargain basement free agents that could help some teams this year. His short list included Wes Helms, Byung-Hyun Kim, Jim Mecir, Rudy Seanez, Jeff Weaver and Rondell White. I've already discussed my interest in Weaver and I won't go in to Welms, Mecir, and Seanez because, frankly, I don't care about them. However, I could see Kim and White helping the Nats.
BH Kim's "crapping pants" pose in the 2001 playoffs in edilibly etched in most fans' minds. His struggles in Boston in 2004 went further in demolishing his reputation. Nonetheless, I my interest was picqued when I saw Kim's 4.37 ERA as a starter with the Rockies in 2005 - otherwise known as the Franchise Where Pitchers Go to Die. If what we're after this offseason are cheap arms that can compliment Livan, JPatt, and perhaps a marquee starter (Morris, Weaver, etc.), I could easily get behind a 1 year/$1M offer.
As for White, say what you want about him, but he's been a .291/.342/.477 (AVG/OBP/SLG) over the past 3 seasons and has failed to post an above-average OPS+ only three times in 13 MLB seasons. And this at the relative bargain price of $3.25M in 2005. Talk about a bat flying under the radar. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. There's a reason his price is so low, namely a reeeeeally bad glove, as his ESPN player card notes well:
Quick note: The Padres and Nats are discussing a Termel Sledge for Dave Roberts deal. Not a great deal, IMO. Trading away a 28-year old with potential for an average old guy is not what I would consider to be a decent deal. Roberts' only advantage over Sledge is a very slightly better career OBP (.340 vs. .337) and more stolen bases. Maybe his speed makes him a superior outfielder, but I haven't seen enough one way or another to agree or disagree with that statement. Why not sign Kenny Lofton instead?
"Another baseball source with knowledge of the talks said the Nationals' offer, made after the field of competitors for Burnett appeared to be dwindling, was for at least $40 million over four years, though Burnett opted for five guaranteed years and between $52 million and $55 million from Toronto. Washington's offer was on the table only because team officials expect to be working with a budget of around $60 million, an increase of about $7 million to $8 million over last season's payroll."$60M is a number we can work with, and gives JimBo (according to my best 4th grade math) approximately $12-13 million to play with this offseason before all the arbitration cases. The 4 year/$40 million offer to Burnett will likely not be enough to nab him away from the Blue Jays. I would hope that that offer is as high as Bowden is willing to go. Burnett is a quality SP, but I hesitate to commit more than $10M per to anyone, much less a pitcher with Burnett's injury history. I sure hope JimBo is inquiring to Jeff Weaver's agent before his price gets out of hand as the Burnett sweepstakes losers bid him up.
By way of an update on the Javier Vazquez rumors, it appears that the likely Burnett-less Cards and the Indians are getting involved. Considering Vazquez's stated desire to move to a city closer to Puerto Rico, I wonder if Bowden has shown him the flight schedules:
- St. Louis to San Jose, PR: No direct flights. Shortest flight time is 6 hours, 21 minutes (and you have to change in *shiver* Chicago).
- Cleveland to San Jose, PR: No direct flights. Shortest flight time is 6 hours, 35 minutes (with a change in *yack* Atlanta).
- Washington, DC to San Jose, PR: Daily non-stop flights from Dulles. Flight time via American Airlines 3 hours, 38 minutes.
Rob Neyer yesterday wrote a neat little column (sorry, ESPN Insiders only) listing some bargain basement free agents that could help some teams this year. His short list included Wes Helms, Byung-Hyun Kim, Jim Mecir, Rudy Seanez, Jeff Weaver and Rondell White. I've already discussed my interest in Weaver and I won't go in to Welms, Mecir, and Seanez because, frankly, I don't care about them. However, I could see Kim and White helping the Nats.
BH Kim's "crapping pants" pose in the 2001 playoffs in edilibly etched in most fans' minds. His struggles in Boston in 2004 went further in demolishing his reputation. Nonetheless, I my interest was picqued when I saw Kim's 4.37 ERA as a starter with the Rockies in 2005 - otherwise known as the Franchise Where Pitchers Go to Die. If what we're after this offseason are cheap arms that can compliment Livan, JPatt, and perhaps a marquee starter (Morris, Weaver, etc.), I could easily get behind a 1 year/$1M offer.
As for White, say what you want about him, but he's been a .291/.342/.477 (AVG/OBP/SLG) over the past 3 seasons and has failed to post an above-average OPS+ only three times in 13 MLB seasons. And this at the relative bargain price of $3.25M in 2005. Talk about a bat flying under the radar. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. There's a reason his price is so low, namely a reeeeeally bad glove, as his ESPN player card notes well:
"Although he was used extensively in left field last season, on a good team White is strictly a designated hitter. His throwing arm probably is the weakest of any major league outfielder in recent memory. Opposing teams run on his arm at will. He lacks range, especially on balls hit directly over his head. His eight assists over the past two seasons are offset by eight errors."Would I be willing to take the bad glove to get the good bat, especially considering RFK's spacious OF? As always, it comes down to money and, to a lesser extent, what CF we would have to have to try and cover up his defensive deficiencies. 1-2 years, $3.5M per would be about as much as I'd be willing to commit. Then go out and get a Milton Bradley-type glove to replace Wilkerson, assuming he gets traded.
Quick note: The Padres and Nats are discussing a Termel Sledge for Dave Roberts deal. Not a great deal, IMO. Trading away a 28-year old with potential for an average old guy is not what I would consider to be a decent deal. Roberts' only advantage over Sledge is a very slightly better career OBP (.340 vs. .337) and more stolen bases. Maybe his speed makes him a superior outfielder, but I haven't seen enough one way or another to agree or disagree with that statement. Why not sign Kenny Lofton instead?
Sunday, December 04, 2005
Winter Meetings a-Go-Go
With the 2005 Winter Meetings on tap this week, Nats fans could be in store for a few early Christmahanukwanizah gifts this year. This fan is glad to hear that team prez Tony Tavares will be in Dallas backing up our very own Trader Jim.
With Rafael Furcal signing with the Dodgers, it's looking like the Wilkerson-for-Ronny Cedeno deal with the Cubs is unlikely to happen. So all that "expert" prognostication goes to naught. Oh well.
Nonetheless, all that talk with the Cubs appears to have gotten JimBo hot and bothered about a deal with the Northsiders, not to mention stoking the flames of passion for a Javier Vazquez deal, both involving Wilkerson, of course. In fact, it appears that the Wilkster is being shopped around like a cheap date:
2003 - 130
2004 - 105
2005 - 100
Notice a trend? K/9 and K/BB numbers have also declined over the past three years. Now, let's make note that Williams' 2004 season was all but lost to injury. Nonetheless, does JimBo really want to deal one of his few marketable properties for a youngish arm with a less-than-promising resume? Let's hope this rumor is just that. Corey Patterson would be a project, no doubt, but I don't think that we have the coaching at this time to correct the kind of long-term bad habits that he's developed.
On the other hand, a Wilkerson for Vazquez deal would be much better IMO. Published reports have the most of the NL East interested in offering a center fielder for the 28 year-old rightie. As any of the vets of my fantasy baseball league can attest, my man-love for Vazquez knows no bounds thanks to his 2000-2003 run of dominance in Montreal during which he averaged an eye-popping 127 ERA+. Even with the two dismal years in New York and Arizona, the man still has a career ERA+ of 105. Call me crazy, but I think that a good pitching coach like Randy St. Claire could get him back on the right track. For $8.5M in '06 and $9.5M in '07 for Vazquez is a much better way to spend our limited funds than trying to outspend the Cards and Blue Jays for A.J. Burnett. Considering the cost savings the D'Backs would likely get with Wilkerson (even after a Boras-led arbitration), one would think that they might even kick $1-2M or so in to the deal as well.
The real problem here, as always, is limited cash and lack of ownership. Since we have no idea of what budget JimBo (allegedly) got from Tony Tavares last Friday, we have to work on the assumption that the approximately $50M budget from last season is what we have to work with this season as well. Losing Esteban Loaiza and Carrasco frees up approximately $3.5M. That's not really a hell of a lot of cash to go after a Jeff Weaver-type free agent pitcher, who will undoubtedly expect something in the $9M per year range that got in 2005 with the Dodgers. Even if JimBo gets to play with, say, a $55M budget, after all the arbitration cases are decided it's unlikely that we would have enough to pay Weaver or Burnett what they will demand if we nab Vazquez. Basically, the Nats will get one shiny new toy (likely Weaver or Vazquez) and a scratchy sweater or two from Grandma this offseason (see here for an idea of what I mean).
Oh, and here's another reason why Billy Beane is smarter than us. This is exactly the kind of creative deal that JimBo seems unwilling or unable (again, thanks to the national disgrace) to contemplate. You can bet that Oakland will get more than just Bradley if this deal goes down.
In closing, applause all around to the Nats blogger community for making the national disgrace BudBomb a success! Huzzah, I say to you sirs! Huz-zah!!
With Rafael Furcal signing with the Dodgers, it's looking like the Wilkerson-for-Ronny Cedeno deal with the Cubs is unlikely to happen. So all that "expert" prognostication goes to naught. Oh well.
Nonetheless, all that talk with the Cubs appears to have gotten JimBo hot and bothered about a deal with the Northsiders, not to mention stoking the flames of passion for a Javier Vazquez deal, both involving Wilkerson, of course. In fact, it appears that the Wilkster is being shopped around like a cheap date:
(Via Rotoworld.com) The Cubs do have Jerome Williams and some other pitching they could use to try to acquire Wilkerson. The Nationals are looking for a center fielder, but it's unclear if Corey Patterson is of any interest to GM Jim Bowden. Wilkerson is also involved in the Javier Vazquez rumors with the Diamondbacks.Jerome Williams? Let's check those ERA+'s over the past 3 years:
2003 - 130
2004 - 105
2005 - 100
Notice a trend? K/9 and K/BB numbers have also declined over the past three years. Now, let's make note that Williams' 2004 season was all but lost to injury. Nonetheless, does JimBo really want to deal one of his few marketable properties for a youngish arm with a less-than-promising resume? Let's hope this rumor is just that. Corey Patterson would be a project, no doubt, but I don't think that we have the coaching at this time to correct the kind of long-term bad habits that he's developed.
On the other hand, a Wilkerson for Vazquez deal would be much better IMO. Published reports have the most of the NL East interested in offering a center fielder for the 28 year-old rightie. As any of the vets of my fantasy baseball league can attest, my man-love for Vazquez knows no bounds thanks to his 2000-2003 run of dominance in Montreal during which he averaged an eye-popping 127 ERA+. Even with the two dismal years in New York and Arizona, the man still has a career ERA+ of 105. Call me crazy, but I think that a good pitching coach like Randy St. Claire could get him back on the right track. For $8.5M in '06 and $9.5M in '07 for Vazquez is a much better way to spend our limited funds than trying to outspend the Cards and Blue Jays for A.J. Burnett. Considering the cost savings the D'Backs would likely get with Wilkerson (even after a Boras-led arbitration), one would think that they might even kick $1-2M or so in to the deal as well.
The real problem here, as always, is limited cash and lack of ownership. Since we have no idea of what budget JimBo (allegedly) got from Tony Tavares last Friday, we have to work on the assumption that the approximately $50M budget from last season is what we have to work with this season as well. Losing Esteban Loaiza and Carrasco frees up approximately $3.5M. That's not really a hell of a lot of cash to go after a Jeff Weaver-type free agent pitcher, who will undoubtedly expect something in the $9M per year range that got in 2005 with the Dodgers. Even if JimBo gets to play with, say, a $55M budget, after all the arbitration cases are decided it's unlikely that we would have enough to pay Weaver or Burnett what they will demand if we nab Vazquez. Basically, the Nats will get one shiny new toy (likely Weaver or Vazquez) and a scratchy sweater or two from Grandma this offseason (see here for an idea of what I mean).
Oh, and here's another reason why Billy Beane is smarter than us. This is exactly the kind of creative deal that JimBo seems unwilling or unable (again, thanks to the national disgrace) to contemplate. You can bet that Oakland will get more than just Bradley if this deal goes down.
In closing, applause all around to the Nats blogger community for making the national disgrace BudBomb a success! Huzzah, I say to you sirs! Huz-zah!!
Friday, December 02, 2005
Ballgame.
Short, but Sweet
Due to numerous suggestions, I've shortened the name of this blog to the simpler "Banks of the Anacostia." Hope this doesn't create too much work for those kind souls who added me to their blogrolls.
Musings from a "Guzman acceptor"
Sorry to have been out of the loop over the past few days, everyone. The great thing about vacation is that you don't have to work ... until the first day you get back in the office.
Anywho, enough about me. The Hot Stove talk is heating up and I'm getting excited about the potential moves that could be made. Seems like Brad Wilkerson's name is getting bandied about most often, so I'll focus on those rumors. In general, I've always admired Wilkie's skill set, but I'm not convinced that he will even find a fit with this team. Throw in the fact that he's likely going to net around $4M in arbitration this year with little hope that he'll play for the Nats past 2006 and I think now is the right time to be shopping him around. That said, I'm not willing to take peanuts for the guy for the sake of saving payroll, so let's go to the most current rumors...
Wilkerson to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno. When I first saw this rumor, I had to laugh at the sheer ridiculousness of it. It just has that "Barry Larkin's cousin's sister's former roommate's friend told me," quality to it. Hah hah hah, riiiiiiiiight...
Right?
A little digging into this rumor has made me reconsider my initial reaction and I've come to the realization that it could work if it's done in the context of some other deals.
First off, let's take a look at this 22 year-old Cedeno kid, who has been at SS with the Cubbies' AAA Iowa affiliate with occassional call-ups to the big club throughout the 2005 season. He is ranked by Baseball America as the Cubs' 3rd best prospect and their best defensive infielder. Here's are the highlights from his statistical curriculum vitae:
AAA Iowa: 245 AB, .403/.518/.355 (OBP/SLG/AVG), 87 hits, 42 runs, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 11 SB, 1.55 K/BB
MLB Cubs: 80 AB, .356/.375/.300 (OBP/SLG/AVG), 24 hits, 13 runs, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 2.2 K/BB
Those AAA numbers are what excite me the most about the kid. Project them out to a full season (approx. 550 ABs) and you get 188 hits, 94 runs, 18 HR, 81 RBI, and 25 SB. The MLB sample size is too small to make any kind of reliable projection, but the OBP/SLG/AVG numbers are about in line for what I would expect for someone his age making the jump to the bigs. Additional encouragement comes from his strong showing at the AA level and below.
So I like the kid. We'd get younger, save money, and get better defensively in the infield. Nonetheless, the trade still wouldn't make sense on its own since he would simply be yet another reserve infielder behind Vidro and the hole that Wilkie's loss would create in the outfield. Therefore, I'll beat on this drum again.
Anywho, enough about me. The Hot Stove talk is heating up and I'm getting excited about the potential moves that could be made. Seems like Brad Wilkerson's name is getting bandied about most often, so I'll focus on those rumors. In general, I've always admired Wilkie's skill set, but I'm not convinced that he will even find a fit with this team. Throw in the fact that he's likely going to net around $4M in arbitration this year with little hope that he'll play for the Nats past 2006 and I think now is the right time to be shopping him around. That said, I'm not willing to take peanuts for the guy for the sake of saving payroll, so let's go to the most current rumors...
Wilkerson to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno. When I first saw this rumor, I had to laugh at the sheer ridiculousness of it. It just has that "Barry Larkin's cousin's sister's former roommate's friend told me," quality to it. Hah hah hah, riiiiiiiiight...
Right?
A little digging into this rumor has made me reconsider my initial reaction and I've come to the realization that it could work if it's done in the context of some other deals.
First off, let's take a look at this 22 year-old Cedeno kid, who has been at SS with the Cubbies' AAA Iowa affiliate with occassional call-ups to the big club throughout the 2005 season. He is ranked by Baseball America as the Cubs' 3rd best prospect and their best defensive infielder. Here's are the highlights from his statistical curriculum vitae:
AAA Iowa: 245 AB, .403/.518/.355 (OBP/SLG/AVG), 87 hits, 42 runs, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 11 SB, 1.55 K/BB
MLB Cubs: 80 AB, .356/.375/.300 (OBP/SLG/AVG), 24 hits, 13 runs, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, 2.2 K/BB
Those AAA numbers are what excite me the most about the kid. Project them out to a full season (approx. 550 ABs) and you get 188 hits, 94 runs, 18 HR, 81 RBI, and 25 SB. The MLB sample size is too small to make any kind of reliable projection, but the OBP/SLG/AVG numbers are about in line for what I would expect for someone his age making the jump to the bigs. Additional encouragement comes from his strong showing at the AA level and below.
So I like the kid. We'd get younger, save money, and get better defensively in the infield. Nonetheless, the trade still wouldn't make sense on its own since he would simply be yet another reserve infielder behind Vidro and the hole that Wilkie's loss would create in the outfield. Therefore, I'll beat on this drum again.
- Trade Vidro. Perhaps to the D'backs for Javier Vazquez? I could think of worse people to man the #3 slot in the rotation and his salary is not a killer considering the $3M that the Yankees are picking up. Apparently, I'm not the only one considering bringing Vazquez back to the site (or at least franchise) of his earlier dominance (via MLB.com):
"The Nationals reportedly have also inquired about Diamondbacks right-hander Javier Vazquez, who has requested a trade in order to be closer to his home in Puerto Rico."
- Sign Milton Bradley or Jacque Jones. I have sung the praises on these two sluggers before here and here. Leave it to the great MLBTraderumors.com blog to show why Bradley would be an excellent pickup:
"Consider: Bradley posted a 3.8 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) in just 283 at-bats in 2005. Prorated for 600 at-bats, Bradley's WARP would rank him second among all center fielders, behind only Jim Edmonds. Bradley excels in all aspects of the game except for two: staying healthy and pleasing the media. The continual injuries are why it's not fair for me to prorate his WARP over 600 ABs and say he's better than Andruw Jones. But if the potential is there, why not pay $3-4MM to find out what he can really do? Bradley is only 27."Well, I rambled on for far too long again. If I have more time today, I'll examine the other hot rumors surrounding the Nats lately (Carrasco leaving, more Wilkie rumors, Soriano, etc.).
