This much is certain: Washington seeks any or all of the following: a middle-of-the-order slugger, a center fielder and a veteran starting pitcher to help provide stability to a young rotation.

1. Nook Logan and Ryan Church are both a pretty good center fielders.
   

This may seem obvious to most, but it took me looking at these numbers to accept just how well teh Nookster performed in the field. His range factor outperformed all the free agent CFs except for Andruw Jones and Corey Patterson and he tied Church. What is particularly interesting to me is that they both outperformed perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter, at least by the limited metric of range factor. Nook actually had made Out of Zone outs on a more frequent basis than Hunter (once per 17 innings played at the position versus 1:27 for Hunter and 1:23 for Church), reinforcing the conclusion.


2. Ryan Church is a decent bet to outperform some big-time free agent talent at the plate.

I'll caveat this statement by noting that I'm going by an average of only two projection systems; Bill James' and Chone. Other notable projection systems (PECOTA, Marcel, ZiPS) have yet to release their full 2008 data. That said, unless my averages change dramatically when the new data comes in, Church is projected to out-OPS all of the 2nd-tier CF free agent talent, including rumored Nats targets, Mike Cameron and Brad Wilkerson.


3. Justin Maxwell may one day be the answer in center field, but it's waaaaay too soon to make that call definitively.

There's just not enough data to go on with Maxwell to say that he will be good enough to hold down a starting CF slot. Given the fact that he has less than two full seasons of minor league stats (none above high-A) I think it would be rash to think that he's legitimately in the picture for 2008 despite a nice little run when he got his cup o' joe in DC this year.

And finally...


4. Making a serious run at Andruw Jones makes sense.
   

Among the free agent center fielders, the only name that provides a significant upgrade at the position (admittedly, by the imperfect metrics I've laid out) is Andruw Jones. He had a better RZR and nearly doubled Hunter's OOZ numbers in only one less game. Despite his Boras-inflated value he could still be somewhat affordable thanks to this down 2007. While his .222/.311/.413 campaign this year was atrocious, he's still averaged .249/.341/.507 and nearly 40 HR per year over the past three seasons. Will be strike out a lot? Yes, but he'll also be a legitimate power bat who provides plus defense in center. Should the Nats lock themselves into a 5-year, $100 million deal to get him? I'm not ready to go THAT far. That said, Scott Boras' first and foremost concern is getting paid. Given his sub-par 2007, I doubt that anyone is going to throw stupid money at Jones so Boras could be flexible.

The ideal Jones signing in my mind would be a $16-17M one-year make-good type deal in the hopes of trading him for kids at the deadline or nabbing compensation picks when he walks. Given the relative lack of CF's on the farm that could make an impact soon (yes, even Maxwell), I wouldn't necessarily turn my nose up at a 3-year deal for Jones in the $45-48M range either.

What would really get my panties in a bunch would be if the Nats made a half-assed "well, we tried" offer to Jones and then gave a multi-year commitment to an overrated bat like Aaron Rowand or Mike Cameron to assuage the "need" for a "flashy" signing as the team enters the new park. If JimKast can't land Jones, there's really nothing wrong with putting Church in center and concentrating on getting one or two reliable (if not world-beating) innings sinks into the rotation.

In other words, go big or go home.

# posted by JammingEcono @ 10:21 PM