Tuesday, January 02, 2007
Sox Showing Interest in the Chief
Happy New Year, Nats fans! Hopefully you all had a wonderful holiday season. Hard to believe that we are now less than two months away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Viera, isn't it? My how time flies...
Speaking of pitchers, the Cordero-to-Boston rumor finally got fleshed out with some names, according to Jeff Horrgan at the Boston Herald:
On the money side, Cordero is up for arbitration for the first time this year, and most estimates I've seen estimates that have him getting $3-$4M for this year. Hansen signed a 4 year, $4.4M deal in July 2005, which included a $1.3M signing bonus. Cordero will be a free agent after the 2009 season while Hansen will remain under team control until after the 2011 season, at the earliest. Hansen is not as talented as Cordero, but he is younger, cheaper, and is no slouch talent-wise. Bowden's inclusion in the deal would balance the scales talent-wise for the Nats. Under normal circumstances, $2-3M in payroll savings could be plowed into one two innings-eater #2 and #3 SPs with upside, but I'm beginning to think that I should start taking statements like this one coming out of Pravda at face value:
An interesting wrinkle in any trade scenario would be the inclusion (or not) of Wily Mo Pena. My basic feeling is that if WMP is not included in a deal, the Nats would need at least two B+ prospects to make a deal work. If he is included, then one B-level and perhaps a promising C-level prospect could make it happen. I would hate to see Nook Logan or Alex Escobar counted on for anything more than 50 games apiece in center. WMP has the fielding prowess and upside to hold down the position, IMO.
Taking a spin around the Natmosphere, kudos to Chris over at Capitol Punishment for his nice run-down of the remaining free-agent starting pitchers. He and I agree on a few names to pursue (Jerome Williams, Victor Zambrano, Joel Pineiro), but I would disagree with his assessments of Mark Redman and John Thomson. Redman has a history of poor control (career 1.87 K/BB) which when combined with his inability to strike guys out (5.47 career K/9), suggests to me that he has been getting by mostly on luck. In addition, he's failed to crack 190 IP since 2004 which would take him out of the innings-eater role I envision for the Nats' #2 and #3 starters. The fact that he's a lefty and was KC's lone All-Star (almost by default) suggest to me that he will likely get a contract out of keeping with what he is likely to produce. Unless he available for <$3M per, I doubt the Nats will take a chance on him. Thomson has teased me since his breakout 2004 season with the Braves. His control has always been above-average, but I would suspect that his career will end soon due to persistent shoulder injuries. Rotoworld seems to think that he'd be a buy-low bargain, but I'd rather take a flier on someone that perhaps has less talent but is healthier.
Finally, be sure to check out Brian's interview with minor league guru Deric McKamey over at Nationals Farm Authority. I'll conservatively predict that watching the development of Esmailyn Gonzalez for the GCL Nationals will be as much, if not more fun than the daily ritual of scanning the Major League Nats' box score.
Speaking of pitchers, the Cordero-to-Boston rumor finally got fleshed out with some names, according to Jeff Horrgan at the Boston Herald:
The club remains interested in Washington Nationals right-hander Chad Cordero, who went 7-4 with 29 saves in 33 opportunities last season, but is currently unwilling to part with a top pitching prospect.Ian Browne at the Sox's official MLB.com page echoes the sentiment:
The Nationals have interest in Craig Hansen and right-hander Michael Bowden (9-6, 3.51 ERA in 24 starts at Single-A Greenville) but are mostly focused on Clay Buchholz, who the Sox have refused to deal. The 22-year-old, a sandwich pick (42nd overall) in the 2005 draft, went a combined 11-4 with a 2.42 ERA in 24 starts between Greenville and Single-A Wilmington.
The one major need general manager Theo Epstein still has to fill is the closer's role. There isn't much out there on the free-agent market, so look for the Sox to get creative with a trade. The Nationals' Chad Cordero is someone the Red Sox reportedly covet.If you're so inclined, you can read my dissections of the various Cordero-Sox rumors here and here. I doubt that the Sox would be willing to part with Buchholz, but getting Hansen and Bowden would be a nice haul. In Hansen, the Nats would get the major-league ready reliever that would have a shot at replacing Cordero in the closer role and Bowden would add a promising young starter to the farm. From the Sox's point of view, I think the decision on how to do a trade for Cordero will rest on how close they think they are to winning a World Series with their current squad. Theo Epstein is known for holding on tight to his prospects (really, who isn't?), but I could see something happening. Cordero is young enough himself that trading away some youth wouldn't necessarily hurt the Sox's deep farm system that much, especially if they believe that they are in a position to make a run at a title in 2007.
On the money side, Cordero is up for arbitration for the first time this year, and most estimates I've seen estimates that have him getting $3-$4M for this year. Hansen signed a 4 year, $4.4M deal in July 2005, which included a $1.3M signing bonus. Cordero will be a free agent after the 2009 season while Hansen will remain under team control until after the 2011 season, at the earliest. Hansen is not as talented as Cordero, but he is younger, cheaper, and is no slouch talent-wise. Bowden's inclusion in the deal would balance the scales talent-wise for the Nats. Under normal circumstances, $2-3M in payroll savings could be plowed into one two innings-eater #2 and #3 SPs with upside, but I'm beginning to think that I should start taking statements like this one coming out of Pravda at face value:
There's still a lot of work to do to improve the Nationals, but don't look for them to spend money to do it. Look for general manager Jim Bowden to make a trade or two before Spring Training. Church and closer Chad Cordero have been on the trade block for most of the offseason, and Washington wants top prospects or young Major League players in return.Getting back to the Cordero deal, my gut tells me that this trade won't happen. While signs point to dominance, there's no telling what Matsuzaka will bring to the table in his first year in the bigs and if he doesn't live up to expectations, the Sox will be in trouble. If I were Theo Epstein, I would probably want to get a season of certainty on Matsuzaka before investing precious young arms in a closer like Cordero. The problem there is that waiting another year would mean that Schilling is one year older, so a case could be made for doing the deal now. In addition, the Sox finished in 3rd place in the AL East in 2006, a sobering fact that could push them towards a deal. I think it all comes down to how much risk Epstein is willing to take on to make a run at a championship in 2007. At this point, I'd put the chances of a deal going down at 60/40 against.
An interesting wrinkle in any trade scenario would be the inclusion (or not) of Wily Mo Pena. My basic feeling is that if WMP is not included in a deal, the Nats would need at least two B+ prospects to make a deal work. If he is included, then one B-level and perhaps a promising C-level prospect could make it happen. I would hate to see Nook Logan or Alex Escobar counted on for anything more than 50 games apiece in center. WMP has the fielding prowess and upside to hold down the position, IMO.
Taking a spin around the Natmosphere, kudos to Chris over at Capitol Punishment for his nice run-down of the remaining free-agent starting pitchers. He and I agree on a few names to pursue (Jerome Williams, Victor Zambrano, Joel Pineiro), but I would disagree with his assessments of Mark Redman and John Thomson. Redman has a history of poor control (career 1.87 K/BB) which when combined with his inability to strike guys out (5.47 career K/9), suggests to me that he has been getting by mostly on luck. In addition, he's failed to crack 190 IP since 2004 which would take him out of the innings-eater role I envision for the Nats' #2 and #3 starters. The fact that he's a lefty and was KC's lone All-Star (almost by default) suggest to me that he will likely get a contract out of keeping with what he is likely to produce. Unless he available for <$3M per, I doubt the Nats will take a chance on him. Thomson has teased me since his breakout 2004 season with the Braves. His control has always been above-average, but I would suspect that his career will end soon due to persistent shoulder injuries. Rotoworld seems to think that he'd be a buy-low bargain, but I'd rather take a flier on someone that perhaps has less talent but is healthier.
Finally, be sure to check out Brian's interview with minor league guru Deric McKamey over at Nationals Farm Authority. I'll conservatively predict that watching the development of Esmailyn Gonzalez for the GCL Nationals will be as much, if not more fun than the daily ritual of scanning the Major League Nats' box score.
# posted by JammingEcono @ 3:59 PM 
