Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Church Drawing Interest. Vidro? Not So Much...
Nats rumors continue to trickle out of Orlando, but it may be time to start lowering expectations of anything major. As usual, Svrluga rounds up most of the important details:
Getting back to the Svrluga article, did anyone else notice Manny Acta beginning to lay the rhetorical groundwork for a decision to sit Guzman next season and to let us know that Vidro ain't goin' nowhere:
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Chicago
Detroit
Of the teams above, I like the Phillies' pitching prospects the best. LHP Giovany Gonzalez, LHP Daniel Haigwood, and RHP Scott Mathieson headline Sickel's run-down of the arm-rich Phillie's system. Of the three, Mathieson is the most MLB ready, having thrown 37+ IP with the big club last season, but he had Tommy John in September and will be lost for the 2007 season. Other names to remember from the Phils farm include Matt Maloney, James Happ, and Carlos Carrasco.
The Cordero three-way trade rumor refuses to die, by the way. Only now it's involving the Angels. From Jim Molony at MLB.com:
Of all the rumored deals, I would put the chances of a Cordero trade this week at 15%, Church at 60%, and J-Patt and Vidro at 5%. Disappointing odds, I admit, but the Winter Meetings have lately been much more about hype and rumor than real trades. The unusualness of huge trades getting done there is one reason the Soriano deal last winter was such big news.
While I'd love to see some serious action in Orlando, it's looking more and more like Basil's hilarious scenario is what is actually coming to pass.
My last thought of the day regards the latest from Tom Boswell. If you don't have time to read it, I'll summarize today's column for you:
Waaaah!! I'm impatient because the Nationals won't spend money on crappy pitchers!!! DC fans aren't "sophisticated or patient enough -- or gullible enough" to understand the value of delayed gratification!! Waaaah!!!
Boz's article basically repackages the philosophy that has decimated the Redskins for the better part of a decade -- i.e. spend money, buy a bunch of sexy names and then lose, lose, lose because there's no coherent plan in place. Call me crazy, but I trust the judgement of a guy with 14 straight division titles on his resume more than a hack writer with an ego to stroke.
What people are whispering in the lobby of Walt Disney World's Dolphin hotel is that, as hard as they're trying, it's unlikely the Nationals will be involved in any major deals.On specific trade deals, St. Barry offers one interesting tidbit:
Church, 28, has been the subject of much of the Nationals' discussions, and there were indications that the Chicago Cubs showed more interest Tuesday. The Cubs are trying to trade outfielder Jacque Jones, and Church could be a cheaper left-handed hitter to replace him.I lobbied for a Jacque Jones signing last offseason, but the Cubs beat us to him and got a bargain at 3 years/$16 million, which netted them a nice 533 ABs of .833 OPS with 27 HR and 81 RBI on 2006. That said, the time to have gotten him has passed. I'd rather keep the younger, cheaper Church if Jones is all that is on offer from Wrigleyville.
Getting back to the Svrluga article, did anyone else notice Manny Acta beginning to lay the rhetorical groundwork for a decision to sit Guzman next season and to let us know that Vidro ain't goin' nowhere:
He said that should second baseman Jose Vidro remain with the team -- the Nationals are still trying to move the veteran and the $16 million remaining on the final two years of his contract, though it appears a market hasn't truly developed -- he will hit second, and shortstop Felipe Lopez will lead off. He believes the bullpen -- with a healthy Luis Ayala -- will be a strength, that much needs to be determined about the health of shortstop Cristian Guzman and first baseman Nick Johnson, and that the expectations for third baseman Ryan Zimmerman are real.Ryan Church's trade stock is apparently rising, according to Rocket Bill:
KC and the Pirates have also shown interest in Churchy, according to Dejan Kovacevic at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:Ryan Church is another Nationals player whose name surfaced in more trade talks on Tuesday. Baseball sources indicated that the Phillies, Cubs and Tigers have inquired about Church.
The Cubs currently have a team that is dominated by right-handed hitters, and manager Lou Piniella would love to have a player like the left-handed hitting Church in the lineup. The Phillies, on the other hand, are looking for a reserve outfielder to replace David Dellucci, who signed with the Indians. Detroit wants a left-handed power hitter off the bench.
Another target for the Pirates remains Washington Nationals outfielder Ryan Church, who also is coveted by the Kansas City Royals.As I said yesterday, I'm all for trading ABZ (Anyone But Zimm) for prospects. Prospect reports for all five organizations mentioned come courtesy of John Sickels:
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Chicago
Detroit
Of the teams above, I like the Phillies' pitching prospects the best. LHP Giovany Gonzalez, LHP Daniel Haigwood, and RHP Scott Mathieson headline Sickel's run-down of the arm-rich Phillie's system. Of the three, Mathieson is the most MLB ready, having thrown 37+ IP with the big club last season, but he had Tommy John in September and will be lost for the 2007 season. Other names to remember from the Phils farm include Matt Maloney, James Happ, and Carlos Carrasco.
The Cordero three-way trade rumor refuses to die, by the way. Only now it's involving the Angels. From Jim Molony at MLB.com:
The Angels could be involved in a three-way deal with the Nationals and Red Sox with Ramirez going to the Angels. The Nationals and Red Sox would love to have Ervin Santana, who was 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA last season, but the Angels are loathe to part with the right-hander.If Bowden couldn't sustain interest in a deal for Noah Lowry, why does he think that the Angels will be willing to part with the younger and arguably more talented Santana? I have little doubt that JimBo himself is the source of most of the rumors making the rounds in Orlando. This is the same man who seriously proposed Michael Hinckley for Lastings Milledge (later reportedly "upgraded" to J-Patt for Milledge). Of course, if we could somehow turn Cordero into Santana, I'd lead the parade down South Capitol Street. I'm doubtful that this happens though.
Of all the rumored deals, I would put the chances of a Cordero trade this week at 15%, Church at 60%, and J-Patt and Vidro at 5%. Disappointing odds, I admit, but the Winter Meetings have lately been much more about hype and rumor than real trades. The unusualness of huge trades getting done there is one reason the Soriano deal last winter was such big news.
While I'd love to see some serious action in Orlando, it's looking more and more like Basil's hilarious scenario is what is actually coming to pass.
My last thought of the day regards the latest from Tom Boswell. If you don't have time to read it, I'll summarize today's column for you:
Waaaah!! I'm impatient because the Nationals won't spend money on crappy pitchers!!! DC fans aren't "sophisticated or patient enough -- or gullible enough" to understand the value of delayed gratification!! Waaaah!!!
Boz's article basically repackages the philosophy that has decimated the Redskins for the better part of a decade -- i.e. spend money, buy a bunch of sexy names and then lose, lose, lose because there's no coherent plan in place. Call me crazy, but I trust the judgement of a guy with 14 straight division titles on his resume more than a hack writer with an ego to stroke.
# posted by JammingEcono @ 8:46 AM 
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If you think Jacque Jones had a good year last year, you are reading way too many stats and watching far too many games. 27 HR and 81 RBI out of Wrigley is below par for a Cubs OF. What do you think that translates to in RFK? Oh, and have you watched JJ field? Suffice it to say, he'd fit right in with the hilarity known as the Nats defense. So fitting that the rest of baseball values Church even as the Nats consistenly undervalue him. He'll have a couple of outstanding years in someone else's uni, book it and lock it. And speaking of, do you think we'd better off with Juan Rivera now? This teams goes NOWHERE with Jom Bowden at the helm, because JimBo hasn't seen a prospect he wouldn't trade for a veteran. You know if he'd had his druthers, he'd have hired Dusty to manage -- except Dusty's not an ex-Red.
# posted by 
: 10:57 AM
: 10:57 AM
Is 27 HR/81 RBI/.833 OPS good production from a $3M investment? You bet your ass it is!
As far as fielding, the statistics do not bear you out. In 2006, his fielding percentage was .976 vs. a league average of .980. Range factor/9 innings was 2.09 versus a 2.11 league average. So basically, he was very slightly worse than a league average RF, not exactly the defensive liability you make him out to be.
Maybe you could stand to read a few more stats and watch a few more games before you start spouting off half-assed opinions, eh anonymous?
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As far as fielding, the statistics do not bear you out. In 2006, his fielding percentage was .976 vs. a league average of .980. Range factor/9 innings was 2.09 versus a 2.11 league average. So basically, he was very slightly worse than a league average RF, not exactly the defensive liability you make him out to be.
Maybe you could stand to read a few more stats and watch a few more games before you start spouting off half-assed opinions, eh anonymous?
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