Friday, August 04, 2006
Waiver Strategy
I know that this has already been making the rounds on the blogs, but if you haven't yet read Dan Lewis' excellent article entitled "The New Economics of the MLB Trade Market," over at ArmchairGM, do yourself a favor as check it out. (h/t to Dave and Nate at Nats Triple Play for the referral). If you get nothing else out of reading the article, at least enjoy the hypothetical discussion between Bowden and Stan Kasten over the value of the trade that brought Soriano to Washington.
The article got me thinking about how its findings could be used to make the Nationals better. Basically, the article suggests that buying up B-level free agents with upside and signing them to short-term deals is a good strategy since teams will likely get compensatory draft picks when they walk. While I have argued that getting proven minor-league prospects was preferable to getting first-round draft picks in my criticisms of the Soriano no-trade, I would be the first person to stand up and defend the argument that more draft picks are a good thing. (I am nothing if not Mr. Obvious.) With that said, how can we apply this strategy today? Simple, I say. Go hard after guys on waivers.
"But we're sellers, not buyers!" you say. This is true. 2006 is a lost season, and there is no reason to think that the Nationals will be able to do anything except perhaps a second-consecutive last-place finish in the NL East. Therefore, JimBo, Kasten and company should start looking towards 2007 and beyond, especially the 2007 Amateur Draft. To do this now, JimBo and Kasten should focus on trading for players that:
The article got me thinking about how its findings could be used to make the Nationals better. Basically, the article suggests that buying up B-level free agents with upside and signing them to short-term deals is a good strategy since teams will likely get compensatory draft picks when they walk. While I have argued that getting proven minor-league prospects was preferable to getting first-round draft picks in my criticisms of the Soriano no-trade, I would be the first person to stand up and defend the argument that more draft picks are a good thing. (I am nothing if not Mr. Obvious.) With that said, how can we apply this strategy today? Simple, I say. Go hard after guys on waivers.
"But we're sellers, not buyers!" you say. This is true. 2006 is a lost season, and there is no reason to think that the Nationals will be able to do anything except perhaps a second-consecutive last-place finish in the NL East. Therefore, JimBo, Kasten and company should start looking towards 2007 and beyond, especially the 2007 Amateur Draft. To do this now, JimBo and Kasten should focus on trading for players that:
- Have been put on waivers;
- Will be free agents at the end of the season;
- Are likely to be classified as type B free agents or higher at the end of the season;
- Are likely to reject any arbitration offer the Nats send their way.
- Can be had in trades that help clear excess salary
- Livan Hernandez to Colorado for Byung-Hyun Kim - The Rockies are actually only 3.5 games out fo first in the weak NL West and 2.5 games out of the NL wild card. The division is so close that one player could make the difference. Livan has thrown quality starts in 6 of his last 7 turns and has a 3.46 ERA in 3 starts since the All-Star break. Livan's career 2nd half ERA (3.88) is 41 points lower than his career first half ERA (4.47), which could make him attractive to the Rocks. Kim's 4.57/1.50 WHIP are not pretty, but remember that Coors Field still inflates pitching numbers, despite the alleged humidor effect. When one considers that approximately 50% of free-agents get classified as either type A or type B free agents, I think that there is a solid chance that Kim will get a type B classification, meaning that if he walks the Nats get compensatory picks AND clear Livan's $7M salary. In the unhappy event that he were to accept arbitration, the Nats would still have a younger (by 5 years), similar-quality pitcher (albeit less of an innings-horse) and clear around $5M in salary (depending on how arbitration goes). Even if he accepted arbitration and pitched for the Nats in '07, it would be on a one-year deal with the possiblity that his post 2007-exit would still net compensatory draft picks.
- Livo to Philadelphia for David Dellucci - ThePhils have been surging lately on the back of Chase Utley's hit streak and the man-among-boys exploits of Ryan Howard. What is holding the Phillies back from serious wild-card contention is what has historically held them back -- a lack of pitching. If the Phils think that young Shane Victorino is ready to start full-time, then it could make sense to them to take on Livan's salary (especially since they no longer have to deal with most of Abreu's paycheck) for the stretch run and move ScottMathieson and Ryan Madson back to the 'pen where they belong. Dellucci would fill in in right to fill the void Jose Guillen left and Austin Kearns can move over to CF. Dellucci's limited playing time and inability to hit lefties is balanced out by his monster numbers against righties (.338/.393/.628 in 148 AB). In DC, I think there would be a fair chance that he could get enough playing time as a starter to get a type B free-agent ranking. Again, at the very least, it would clear the $7M the Nats are paying for Livo's declining skill set. Were Dellucci to accept arbitration, the Nats could do much worse than a Church/Dellucci outfield platoon, considering RC's good numbers vs lefties (.297/.387/.469 career).
- Livo and Daryle Ward/Marlon Anderson to Texas for Gary Matthews, Jr. - As usual, Texas is hanging around the playoff picture, but they are ranked 10th in the AL in pitching thanks to craptacular performances from Kameron Loe and John Koronka among others. Matthews is having a career year in his walk season, but I wonder if the Rangers wouldn't be willing to deal him given their starting pitching woes. I would throw in Ward or Anderson to sweeten a deal considering Texas's lack of bench depth (Jerry Hairston and former Nat Brad Wilkerson have been particularly disappointing). Matthews would almost certainly refuse arbitration to cash in on his free-agent payday, potentially netting the Nats a cheap 1st round pick thanks to Matthews' likely type-A designation.
# posted by JammingEcono @ 12:08 PM 
